ATP Madrid Open Betting Preview: A tournament with real opportunity, or another title for the usual suspects?

The men’s action at the Mutua Madrid Open begins on Wednesday, April 23. Andrey Rublev is the defending champion, but some of the big guns will be hoping to unseat him. Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev have won a combined seven titles at the Caja Magica. It shouldn’t surprise anybody if one of those three gets the job done in 2025, especially with Zverev winning a title in Munich last week. It's also the last tournament before the currently suspended Jannik Sinner returns in Rome.

Let’s get into it all with our betting preview, court conditions, players to watch and a pick to win:

Recent Mutua Madrid Open Winners

• 2019: Novak Djokovic
• 2020: No tournament (COVID-19)
• 2021: Alexander Zverev
• 2022: Carlos Alcaraz
• 2023: Carlos Alcaraz
• 2024: Andrey Rublev

Mutua Madrid Open Betting Odds

• Carlos Alcaraz (+175)
• Alexander Zverev (+600)
• Novak Djokovic (+750)
• Holger Rune (14-1)
• Casper Ruud (20-1)
• Taylor Fritz (28-1)
• Stefanos Tsitsipas (28-1)
• Arthur Fils (33-1)
• Jack Draper (33-1)
• Joao Fonseca (33-1)

(For the rest of the odds, go to BetMGM)

Mutua Madrid Open Conditions

This is one of the most fascinating clay-court events of the year, as it’s played at significant altitude. So while being able to grind from the baseline is important, having a big serve matters a little more here than it does at other clay-court events. You’re also rewarded for having big weapons from the back of the court. That’s a big part of the reason we saw Jiri Lehecka and Felix Auger-Aliassime make deep runs last year. Both players possess big serves, which were only more dangerous with the altitude allowing them to breeze through the air.

When handicapping this event, it’s definitely important to back players that can win long rallies. But don’t discount the big servers like you would in Monte-Carlo. The two tournaments don’t play anything alike.

Mutua Madrid Open Players To Watch

Taylor Fritz (28-1): Kenny Ducey, one of my fellow experts on Tennis Bets Live, likes to refer to Fritz as “Claylor.” The American hasn’t always been great on dirt, but he’s a respectable 50-36 on the dirt in his career. He’s also 13-6 on clay over the last 52 weeks, including a run to the semifinals in this very tournament last year. Fritz’s serve is a weapon on these courts, as is his ability to grind down opponents. The American can end points quickly with his game, but he’s also capable of going into lockdown mode and waiting out errors from opponents. With that in mind, I don’t think there’s anything preventing another deep run from Fritz this week. His draw is somewhat manageable as well.

Arthur Fils (33-1): Fils' rise has been one of the big stories of the 2025 season. The 20-year-old is 16-7 this year, and that 69.6% win percentage is the best he’s had in his young ATP career. The Frenchman has also raised his floor tremendously, using his athleticism to become a significantly better baseliner. Fils has always been an explosive player, with a big serve and forehand that can end points quickly. But he has improved his accuracy as a server, and he is also getting better at extending rallies and constructing points. Now, Fils feels like he is working himself deep into every tournament. And that makes it hard not to like him to make some noise in Madrid.

Fils has have some tough potential matchups in his draw, as he could take on Francisco Cerundolo in the Round of 32, and a win would likely mean a meeting with Zverev in the Round of 16. But Fils just beat Zverev in Miami, and there’s no reason to doubt him in Madrid. These conditions should be great for Fils, who can win easy points with his serve and wear opponents out from the back of the court. He just needs to be accurate with his first serve, as his second serve is one of his only big weaknesses.

Mutua Madrid Open Pick To Win

Alex de Minaur (33-1): I wouldn’t say de Minaur is my actual pick to win, but I love the value on him at 33-1. The first real test for the Australian would likely be Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Round of 16, but it’s no guarantee the Greek star will get there. And given what we have seen from de Minaur over the last few weeks, I don’t think it’s crazy to expect him to win that one. De Minaur is just making some rapid improvements on clay, where he is 12-6 over the last 52 weeks. And the level we have seen from him—even in losses—over the last few weeks has been noteworthy.

De Minaur is still playing his usual brand of elite baseline defense, but he has a career-high hold percentage (83.0%) and break percentage (33.2%) through 28 matches in 2025. He’s also hitting his forehand a lot harder, giving him a shot that allows him to end rallies quickly. At some point, I think we’ll see de Minaur put it all together and win a massive title. And I just don’t think it’s crazy to expect it to come this week. Only five players have a higher Elo rating than de Minaur in 2025, and a good argument can be made that he has been better—or at least more consistent—than a few of the players above him.