Australian Open Best Bet: Holger Rune vs. Jannik Sinner

One of the biggest matches of the fourth round of the Australian Open pits Holger Rune against defending champion Jannik Sinner. For a little while, tennis fans and analysts viewed Rune as a potential third member of a new “Big Three.” Since then Carlos Alcaraz and Sinner have combined to win six Grand Slams, whil Rune finished last season as the world No. 13 and didn’t do much to prove he belongs in the conversation.

Rune will be hoping to level up in 2025, and we have already seen some good stuff from the Dane in Melbourne. And while I don’t think he has much of a shot at winning this match, I’m expecting him to be competitive—at least for as long as his body holds up.

Rune was cramping against Miomir Kecmanovic in the fourth set of the third round, and it was amazing the 21-year-old was even able to win. He lost most of his ability to maneuver the baseline, so he started to stand and deliver massive blows from both wings. The forehand ultimately got him here, as he was absolutely scorching from that side of the court.

His recovery is going to be extremely important heading into a match with Sinner, but I’d at least expect the best Rune has to offer for the first two sets or so. If he can do some damage there, he should go Over his personal games total of 13.5.

Sinner has won two matches in a row against Rune, but the 21-year-old has beaten him twice in their four career meetings. And it’s not like all of those wins came a long time ago. Rune beat Sinner in the semifinals in Monte Carlo in 2023, 1-6, 7-5, 7-5. And interestingly enough, Rune has won more than 13.5 games in three of the four matches these two have played. That’s noteworthy because these two have never played a best-of-five match against one another. In the match he didn’t reach this mark, he came up just a half-game short.

Rune simply believes he belongs on the same court as Sinner. That’s a start. Not a lot of players truly think they can take on the best players in the world, but confidence is not an issue for the Dane. The 21-year-old just needs to really focus when it’s his time to serve. And overall, decision making will be the difference in whether or not this one hits.

Rune will probably play a little more aggressive than usual in order to try and hold his own in 0-4 shot rallies. But he needs to be smart about how he’s attacking, and he needs to land some first serves, even if that means taking some pace off them.

But if there’s anybody that can be trusted to rise to the occasion in a very difficult matchup, it’s Rune. He has never played a match in which he failed to win a set against Sinner, and keeping that streak alive would put us in great shape with this play. So, look for him to draw on previous success against his former rival. After hearing about Joao Fonseca all week, this is Rune's chance to show everybody that he's still the biggest young threat after Alcaraz and Sinner.

Pick: Rune Over 13.5 Games Won (-114)