Pick of the Day: Jordan Thompson vs. Casper Ruud, Rolex Paris Masters

Casper Ruud is a Top 10 player and former No. 2. He has also accomplished a lot this season: 47-22, with the third-highest winning percentage (68.1%) of his impressive career. But there’s also no denying that Ruud’s lows can be extremely low. And we’re in the middle of a dip right now, which is why I like his opponent, Jordan Thompson, on Tuesday in the Round of 32 at the Rolex Paris Masters.

Ruud just feels like he’s crawling to the finish line to end this 2024 season, as he has lost seven of his last nine matches. And some of the defeats were absolutely stunning. Ruud lost to Henrique Rocha in Davis Cup action in the middle of September, and he has also lost matches against Aleksandar Vukic and Roberto Bautista Agut. Those are players that Ruud should beat every single time he faces them. But his level just isn’t where it needs to be right now. He has been vocal about a lack of offseason in tennis, so perhaps he isn’t prioritizing this part of the year—which would admittedly be odd considering he’s in the mix for the ATP Finals in Turin.

Ruud also has a loss to this very opponent during this recent poor stretch, as Thompson beat him in straights in Tokyo. And it was no fluke: Thompson is 4-3 against Ruud, and he has won two of their three encounters in 2024. The only loss was on clay, where Ruud is at his very best.

Thompson's success agianst Ruud stems from the fact that he’s a little more sure of his game. The Australian has a big serve for a guy his size, and has good hands at the net. And he’s clear in his intentions to beat his opponents with those tools. Thompson can also grind from the baseline a little, and his ability to stay solid is a huge strength. Ruud doesn’t quite have all of that. Ruud possesses the ability to dominate matches with his heavy topspin forehand, and he can be tough to beat when he’s hitting his spots with his serve. However, Ruud’s game can be a little leaky, and Thompson seems to know how to find the faults in the foundation.

Overall, I just don’t think Thompson should be going off at plus-money odds against this version of Ruud, especially given the head-to-head history. I understand why the odds are the way they are, as Ruud is a big name and a better overall player. But as things stand, Thompson can and should win this match. I’m grabbing the +122 and not thinking twice about it.

Pick: Thompson To Win (+122)