Betting the Battle of the Brits: Cameron Norrie or Jack Draper at Wimbledon?

A couple of days ago, I had Facundo Diaz Acosta to cover an 8.5-game spread against Cameron Norrie. I thought Norrie was laying way too many games, and that he might be guilty of looking ahead to a possible all-British matchup with Jack Draper.

Well, Norrie was able to easily handle his business, but Diaz Acosta still covered the massive spread. That was a win-win for me, as I badly wanted the opportunity to back Norrie in this match.

Still, I’m not quite bold enough to play the moneyline for a full unit, but I am taking Norrie to cover 4.5 games—and I’m going to sprinkle something on Norrie to win.

Norrie is having a pretty rough season (just 15-13 overall), but he’s still one of the sport’s best fighters. He’ll dig in and give everything he has, especially considering the circumstances. The 28-year-old is 2-0 against Draper, the current British No. 1 on the ATP Tour, with one of those wins coming on grass. Both of the victories were in straight sets. Sure, Draper has made some significant improvements since the two last met in 2022, but will he be able to get over the hump and beat his fellow countryman? I have some doubts.

Another thing that’s really important to note is that Norrie won his last match in two hours and 17 minutes. It was a breeze for him to get through Diaz Acosta, even if there were some tense moments. (Again, a win-win.) Draper, on the other hand, needed three hours and 30 minutes to beat Elias Ymer in the opening round. That’s pretty significant when you consider that Draper has had some fitness concerns throughout his career. The Brit is working hard to improve his conditioning, but you never know when he might fall victim to cramping. If this match ends up going to a fifth set, will he be able to still compete at a high level?

Norrie is also just a player that can frustrate Draper. The 22-year-old wants to end points as quickly as possible, but Norrie is a bit of a counter-puncher who will force extra shotmaking. Norrie is also a lot sharper when it comes to point construction.

This should be a match in which both players have their chances, which is why it makes sense to take the games. But I also like Norrie’s chances of advancing. He loves playing as an underdog, and the fans could ultimately rally behind him at some point.

Pick: Norrie +4.5 Games (-119) & Norrie ML (+235, smaller play)