Indian Wells Betting Preview: Elina Svitolina vs. Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva is the hottest player in tennis right now. The 17-year-old won her first 1000-level event in Dubai a few weeks ago, beating Marketa Vondrousova, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and a red-hot Clara Tauson. She has also earned wins over Tauson and Rybakina in this week’s BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, and both wins were even more convincing this time around. Going against the Russian is a dangerous proposition right now. But like Austin Powers, I also like to live dangerously.

For as good as Andreeva has been to start 2025, it feels like the books are disrespecting Svitolina with these odds. The Ukrainian is a former world No. 3 that is off to a 9-4 start on the season. Those nine wins include victories over Jasmine Paolini, Danielle Collins and Jessica Pegula. That last one was the most impressive, as Svitolina dropped the opening set, reset herself and then thoroughly dominated the final two sets. It ended up being a 5-7, 6-1, 6-2 victory.

If Tauson and Rybakina had difficult holding against Andreeva, perhaps the books think Svitolina doesn’t stand a chance. But Svitolina's break percentage is 38.0% over the last 52 weeks. She’s a much better returner than some of Andreeva’s previous opponents, and that feels like it’s being overlooked. Svitolina should constantly have her younger opponent under duress throughout this one.

Svitolina is also willing to grind out longer rallies, which is something Andreeva’s previous opponents can’t say. Andreeva has been crushing quick-strike baseliners, but how will she look against a player that is willing to put a lot of balls in play—while also possessing the power to put points away when openings present themselves?

I wouldn’t be surprised if Andreeva ends up winning this match, as she’s a better player than Svitolina at this point. But I’m not sure she should be expected to do it in straight sets. Svitolina has a peak Elo rating of 2109.0, which is a little higher than Andreeva’s peak of 2049.1. And while Svitolina did reach that number back in 2018, she’s only 30 years old. There’s still a lot of good tennis ahead of her, and she’s capable of rising to the occasion on any given day.

Pick: Svitolina +1.5 Sets (-135)