What's the best way to parlay Rune vs. Medvedev and Draper vs. Alcaraz?

It’s not often I dish out a parlay for our Tennis Bets readers, but it’s something I have done on Tennis Bets Live—which will be back on X, Facebook and YouTube for the Miami Open next week. Well, when looking at the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open, I couldn’t help it. At +100 odds, I’m playing Holger Rune to win a set against Daniil Medvedev, and I’m pairing it with Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jack Draper.

🖥️📱 Click HERE for live coverage of Alcaraz vs. Draper (start time not before 5:40 p.m. ET)

With the first match, I’m banking on Rune to get over the hump that he couldn’t in last year’s quarterfinals. He and Medvedev played two very tight sets, but the Russian ended up winning 7-5, 6-4 in a fun two-hour match. Rune had just won a battle against Taylor Fritz the day before, 2-6, 7-6, 6-3 in a very physical showdown. This time around, Rune should be just fine physically, and it was Medvedev who had to fight for everything in a 6-4, 2-6, 7-6 (7) win over Arthur Fils in the quarterfinals.

Speaking of that match with Fils, it’s hard not to think Rune can do everything the Frenchman did to bother Medvedev. Fils’ serve is a little bigger than Rune’s, but both players are extremely athletic and have a ton of power from the baseline. Both can hang in long, extended rallies that Medvedev prefers, but they can also go big and really push the Russian around. And Rune has more game than Fils. Not only does he have the power, but he has excellent touch on drop shots and knows when to come to the net to finish points. He also happens to be one of the few players in the world that might have a better backhand than Medvedev.

Rune will have to be disciplined on return. That’s a part of his game that has been somewhat disappointing early in his career, and he needs to be ready to capitalize on Medvedev’s service lulls. But Rune’s break percentage is up at 21.9% this year, which is the highest it has been since 2022. He’s clearly making some strides there.

I honestly view this as a match that Rune can win outright, but I’m taking the set play because the 21-year-old has thrown away some sets this week. I’m not sure he’d be able to survive doing that against a player of Medvedev’s caliber, but I’d also be stunned if he doesn’t at least force a decider.

🖥️📱 Click here for live coverage of Rune vs. Medvedev (start time not before 4:30 p.m. ET)

As for the other match, it’s a little more straightforward. I’m not willing to lay any games or back Alcaraz to win in straight sets, as I have way too much respect for Draper’s talent. The Brit has arrived as a Top 10 player, and he isn’t going anywhere. However, I like the Spaniard to find a way to prevail, as this has arguably been Alcaraz’s best tournament early in his career. The court speeds give him time to run down every ball. He also gets more time to get returns back in play. On top of that, his big, heavy baseline shots—especially the topspin forehands—are incredibly effective in high-bouncing conditions. In the end, that should be enough for him to beat Draper, especially with the Brit still needing to do a little work on the forehand wing.

PARLAY: Rune +1.5 Sets & Alcaraz ML (+100)