Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Ugo Humbert vs. Alexander Zverev, Rolex Paris Masters

Ugo Humbert is having the week of his life. The Frenchman is playing in front of a home crowd at the Rolex Paris Masters, and he is into the first Masters 1000 final of his career. Humbert has already earned wins over Brandon Nakashima, Marcos Giron, Carlos Alcaraz, Jordan Thompson and Karen Khachanov. The victories over Alcaraz and Khachanov were especially impressive, even though the Russian was battling an injury late. Humbert will now look to cap off the storybook week with a win over Alexander Zverev in the final.

However, this could be a bit of an uphill battle. That’s why I’m laying 1.5 games with the German.

All throughout the week, people have talked about how much Humbert has raised his level. And the eye test probably says that he has. However, according to TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations, Humbert’s Shot Quality is only marginally higher on his serve and return. Humbert’s 52-week average Shot Quality for his serve is 7.9, and his return is scored as a 6.8. Well, in Bercy, Humbert’s serve is at an 8.1, while his return is at a 7.1. His forehand and backhand haven’t changed at all.

The reason that’s concerning is that Zverev’s numbers are better across the board. At the Rolex Paris Masters, Zverev’s Shot Quality in his serve is a 9.1, his return is a 7.8, and his forehand and backhand are at an 8.0 and 7.5 respectively. The latter two are interesting because those shots have been much worse than normal this week. Zverev’s 52-week average on his forehand is an 8.2, and his backhand is an 8.1. So, not only is Zverev playing at a significantly higher level than Humbert this week, but there’s also some room for the German to improve. I’m not sure that’s the case for Humbert.

Zverev also happened to edge out Humbert in a tight three-set match in this tournament last year. He won 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5) when they met in the Round of 32, showing that he has the mental fortitude to overcome what will be an electric atmosphere that favors the Frenchman.

Read more: Alexander Zverev ends Holger Rune's Turin hopes, reaches Paris Masters final

I also wouldn’t be surprised if Humbert is a little nervous. Having the crowd in your corner can give you some much-needed adrenaline when there aren’t a lot of expectations, but it might backfire a bit on a stage this big. If Humbert stumbles at all, he’s going to feel the pressure to perform and give them something to cheer about. And if he starts thinking, this thing will be over in a hurry.

The only real edge that Humbert has in this match is that he has been better at playing aggressive tennis over the last week or so. However, it’s a very, very small difference, and Zverev actually had a much higher conversion score (71% vs. 66%) when these two played last year. So, when push came to shove, the German was able to play on his front foot and out-hit Humbert. I don’t really see that changing in this match. Zverev is going to want to pick up one more massive title before heading to Turin for the Nitto ATP Finals.

Line Call: Zverev -1.5 Games (-165)