Madrid Open Betting Preview: Diana Shnaider vs. Iga Swiatek

Iga Swiatek is 24-7 since the start of the 2025 season. That would be a great record for pretty much any other player, but it’s disappointing for the Pole. Swiatek had won at least 85% of her matches in three previous seasons—she's currently at 77%. Of course, now that it’s the clay stretch, there’s a chance Swiatek significantly improves. But it’s clear that opponents no longer fear her the way they once did, and powerful baseliners can give her trouble in quick conditions. With that in mind, I wouldn’t be surprised if Diana Shnaider makes her work in their Round of 16 match-up at the Mutua Madrid Open.

Shnaider has struggled this season herself, as she’s just 11-10 after having gone 42-21 in 2024. But the Russian ball-basher has found her game in Madrid, beating Katie Volynets 6-1, 6-2 in the Round of 64 and then double-bageling Anastasija Sevastova in the Round of 32.

When Shnaider has her game working, she’s an ultra-aggressive baseliner that can slap winners from any part of the court. And she looks to end points as quickly as possible. Does that remind you of someone? Maybe Jelena Ostapenko?

That’s right, part of this handicap is that Shnaider plays a little like a lefty version of the Latvian, and we know Ostapenko gives Swiatek fits. The reason for that is that Ostapenko looks to pummel every ball Swiatek sends her way, meaning the Pole has very little time to set points up the way she would against others. I think we’ll see a similar approach from Shnaider, who is one of the few players on the WTA Tour with the ability to play that way.

I ultimately expect the Pole to find a way to get the job done here, even if she can be rushed in Madrid's quicker playing conditions. I just think she has a little too much polish and seasoning for Shnaider. But 5.5 games is a lot. Swiatek can win in straight sets and still fail to cover that number. And if the Russian does take a set, this should get home rather easily.

Pick: Shnaider +5.5 Games (-114)