Pick of the Day: Naomi Osaka vs. Liudmila Samsonova, Indian Wells

Don’t look now, but Naomi Osaka is starting to round into form. The four-time Grand Slam champion made easy work of Sara Errani in her first match at Indian Wells, winning 6-3, 6-1 in an hour and 10 minutes. Osaka has now won three of her last four matches, the one loss was to Karolina Pliskova in which both sets went into tiebreakers. That said, it wasn’t exactly a match in which she failed to show up. Now, Osaka faces a serious test in Liudmila Samsonova in the second round of the BNP Paribas Open. But it’s a test that I expect the 26-year-old to pass.

The issue in Osaka’s loss to Pliskova is that she couldn’t figure out the former world No. 1’s serve. However, Pliskova can be one of the best servers on the planet when she’s playing her best tennis. I don’t see Osaka having similar problems with Samsonova, especially in these conditions. These courts should slow the ball down and give Osaka a chance to get returns back. The surface will also make Osaka a more dangerous player from the baseline. Her movement has been one of her biggest weaknesses in her on-and-off stints in action over the last few years. But she should have an easier time tracking balls down on these slow hard courts. Meanwhile, she is one of the few players with the power to hit through them, so she should get Samsonova on the move quite often.

It’s also not like Samsonova is playing all that well right now. She has lost three of her last four matches, and she’s also just 4-6 since the start of 2024. For as good as Samsonova can be, the Russian usually picks herself up on the road to the US Open. That’s when she starts consistently playing on the types of hard courts that bring out the best in her game. But Samsonova is just 14-17 in tour-level matches on clay. And this event plays a lot like a clay-court event.

Don't be surprised if Osaka finds her way through. And I tend to think she’s going to start stacking wins soon. Osaka is still very much in her prime years, and she’s going to make her way back to the top as long as she stays committed. She’s committed right now and is likely looking to turn some heads in the desert.

Pick: Osaka ML (-108)