It’s difficult to see what Grigor Dimitrov is dealing with right now. The 33-year-old played outstanding tennis in 2024, going 49-19 and winning his first ATP tournament since 2017. But Dimitrov headed into Indian Wells going winless in his last four matches. He also failed to finish three of those.
Dimitrov retired in a tight second set against Jiri Lehecka in Brisbane, and he had to bow out of his first-round match at the Australian Open against Francesco Passaro. Then, after another loss to Lehecka in Doha, Dimitrov retired after getting bageled in the opening set by Christopher O’Connell in Dubai. Hopefully Dimitrov is able to figure things out and get back to the level he reached last year. But for now, between his poor play and inability to finish matches, it’s hard not to fade him in a meeting with a rock-solid Nuno Borges.
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If Dimitrov was 100 percent healthy, I’d like his chances. In form, he’s an elite server with the ability to hit big through these conditions, carve low slices when he needs to reset points, and just generally run down a lot of balls with his good footwork. But all of those abilities have been hampered this year. On top of that, Dimitrov’s lack of match fitness is concerning. And the slow conditions and unpredictable wind in the desert might not be ideal for a player looking to find his game. In addition to just finding his confidence, Dimitrov is going to need to try and problem-solve a lot.
Borges is a very tough player to face when you’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty. The Portuguese No. 1 isn’t exactly great at one specific thing, but he’s good at pretty much everything. His deep, flat strokes make him very effective in these conditions. Borges doesn’t give up on many shots, and he and his team likely know that grinding a little more than usual could be a viable path to victory against Dimitrov. Don’t be surprised if Borges simply looks to tone things down and outlast Dimitrov here.
Borges has also defeated Dimitrov before—6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-2, 7-6 (6) at the 2024 Australian Open. That should give Borges the confidence he needs to beat this version of Dimitrov.
Pick: Borges ML (-109)