Line Calls, presented by FanDuel: Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev, ATP Finals

Taylor Fritz and Alexander Zverev will meet in the semifinals of the Nitto ATP Finals on Saturday. Fritz was unable to beat Jannik Sinner in a hard-fought two-set match in group play, but his wins over Daniil Medvedev and Alex de Minaur were enough to book him a spot in the final four. Meanwhile, Zverev went a perfect 3-0 in the group stage, defeating Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz.

This match is the latest in what is turning into a bit of a rivalry. They've have met four times since May, with Zverev earning a win in Rome, and Fritz beating the German at Wimbledon, the US Open and the Laver Cup. All of the matches have been entertaining, and this massive stage will only amplify things. And while Zverev has arguably been the hottest player in tennis over the last couple of weeks, I like Fritz to hang around and win a set.

It’s hard to overlook the head-to-head edge that Fritz has earned here. The American has won three matches in a row against his opponent, but the odds suggest there’s a 42 percent chance he doesn’t win a set? I can’t quite get on board with that, even though Zverev clearly loves these conditions and has his game clicking in a big way.

Both of these players are extremely difficult to break on hard courts—especially indoors. In 2024, Zverev has a hold percentage of 89.8% on this surface, and Fritz isn’t much lower at 87.8%. With that in mind, it feels likely that we’ll see a tiebreaker at some point in the first two sets, if not both. So, why not take a shot on Fritz to emerge with one of those? Fritz actually has a higher tiebreaker winning percentage (62.5%) than Zverev (56.7%) this season.

⬇️ LINE CALLS, PRESENTED BY FANDUEL: Zverev offers best value to win the ATP Finals

This matchup also isn’t as friendly to Zverev from the baseline as it used to be. He used to have a massive advantage in longer rallies, but Fritz has worked extremely hard to improve his rally tolerance. And I have mentioned this in the past, but Fritz has no problems going backhand to backhand with Zverev. That’s impressive considering the German has one of the best two-handers in the world.

Honestly, I’m expecting Zverev to find a way to pull this out. For as much as Fritz has had his number recently, the American didn’t play all that well from the baseline against in his last match against de Minaur. And if he doesn’t bring a significantly better level to this one, he’s going to be eliminated. But this price is simply too good to turn down in a match that should feature some long, highly competitive sets.

Pick: Fritz +1.5 Sets (-139)