Pick of the Day: Tommy Paul vs. Ugo Humbert, Indian Wells

On Monday, March 11, we’ll be treated to a Top 20 matchup between Tommy Paul and Ugo Humbert at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Paul earned a straightforward 6-2, 6-2 win over fellow countryman Alex Michelsen on Saturday, and Humbert had little trouble beating Patrick Kypson in his first match in the desert. The Frenchman has been one of the hottest players on the ATP Tour this season: 14-4 overall, and he came to California on the heels of a championship run in Dubai. So, Paul is going to have his work cut out for him here. But I like the American’s chances.

While Humbert is a much better player than Michelsen, it helps Paul that he just got another look at a big server with a powerful baseline game. Paul shouldn’t have to adjust his strategy too much, outside of the fact that Humbert is a lefty. Paul, to note, is an impressive 23-12 in tour-level matches against left-handed players. He has one of the most solid backhands on tour and is comfortable in backhand-to-forehand exchanges against lefties.

Paul is also one of the best movers on tour. On these courts, it can be very hard to beat a player that covers the court at a high level. Paul does it at an elite level. That’s going to make things difficult on Humbert, who likes to pound shots from the baseline. The Frenchman might not have too much success doing that, and he’s not going to like his chances of winning longer rallies against Paul. The American has him beat when it comes to rally tolerance.

If Paul can just serve well in this match, he’s going to have a real shot at winning it. Of course, Paul’s serve isn’t the most reliable tool in his kit. But he has proven to be a big-match player throughout his career, and he’ll enjoy playing this one with the fans firmly in his corner.

Pick: Paul To Win (+110)