WTA Madrid Open Betting Preview: Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, or someone else?

Iga Swiatek won the Mutua Madrid Open in 2024, but there's one problem in her title defense: Jelena Ostapenko is in her quarter of the draw. The clay-court superstar is 0-6 against the Latvian after their latest meeting, in Stuttgart. Aryna Sabalenka, the top-ranked player on tour, has won this event twice and should feel like the player to beat. (Ostapenko just beat her, too.)

There are several other top-ranked players that will feel good about their chances in Madrid, which is why this has the potential to be one of the best tournaments of the year. Let’s get into it with our betting preview, court-condition breakdown, players to watch—and a pick to win.

Recent Mutua Madrid Open Winners

• 2019: Kiki Bertens
• 2020: No tournament (COVID-19)
• 2021: Aryna Sabalenka
• 2022: Ons Jabeur
• 2023: Aryna Sabalenka
• 2024: Iga Swiatek

Mutua Madrid Open Betting Odds

• Aryna Sabalenka (+350)
• Iga Swiatek (+350)
• Mirra Andreeva (+800)
• Elena Rybakina (12-1)
• Coco Gauff (14-1)
• Jessica Pegula (16-1)
• Madison Keys (18-1)
• Qinwen Zheng (20-1)
• Jelena Ostapenko (20-1)
• Amanda Anisimova (33-1)

👉 (For the rest of the odds, head to BetMGM)

Mutua Madrid Open Conditions

This is one of the most fascinating clay-court events of the year, as it’s played at significant altitude. So while being able to grind from the baseline is important, having a big serve matters a little more here than it does in other clay-court events. You’re also rewarded a little more for having big weapons from the back of the court, as the bounces won't be too high. It’s part of why Sabalenka won titles in Madrid in 2021 and 2023, before she really made her significant leap as a clay-court mover. That said, when handicapping matches over the next two weeks, make sure you factor in power a little more than you would in Stuttgart or Rome.

Mutua Madrid Open Players To Watch

Jasmine Paolini (50-1): Paolini really seems to be rounding into form. The Italian went all the way to the semifinals at the Miami Open, where she ultimately ran into a red-hot Sabalenka. The 29-year-old then got bounced by the same opponent in the Stuttgart semifinals—in a tight, 7-5, 6-4 match—but not before earning a straight-set win over Coco Gauff. All in all, Paolini is starting to look like last year’s two-time Grand Slam runner-up. Her hold percentage and break percentage are climbing, and her baseline game is there. So, I wouldn’t rule out a deep run for the Italian, especially in a manageable part of the bracket, where the top player she’d face is Elena Rybakina. That’s somebody she's had success against in the past.

Karolina Muchova (33-1): Muchova didn’t play in Stuttgart and really hasn’t looked great over the course of the 2025 season. But she has had some moments, and she should be able to do some damage on the dirt. Muchova’s 66.7% winning percentage on clay is the best number she has on any surface. Also, she has made three clay-court finals in her career, with one of them being the French Open in 2023. In that match, she put up a real fight against Swiatek. Muchova also happens to have a nice draw. I don’t see her running into trouble until a potential Round of 16 match against Mirra Andreeva, but that’s one I think the Czech can win. Andreeva looked pretty lousy against Ekaterina Alexandrova in Stuttgart, and Muchova’s game is a good match for a faster clay-court tournament.

Mutua Madrid Open Pick To Win

Aryna Sabalenka (+350): Sabalenka doesn’t have the easiest draw in the world. Having to potentially go through Amanda Anisimova and either Paula Badosa or Qinwen Zheng before the semifinals is not easy. However, in quicker conditions, you have to assume Sabalenka will find a way to get the job done. She has won this tournament twice in her career, and could have a third time last year. She lost to Swiatek 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 (7) in the final, and that was a match that many said was the best of the entire 2024 season. And honestly, that was a better version of Swiatek that she saw in 2024. I’d like her chances if they see each other in the final here, but I’m not even sure the Pole will get there. She has some obstacles in her way, including a certain ball-bashing Latvian.