Australian Open Fourth Round Previews: Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune, Shelton vs. Monfils, Rybakina vs. Keys

Jannik Sinner vs. Holger Rune

Nothing comes easily between the Italian and the Dane. The first two times they played, Rune won in three sets. The last two times they played, it was Sinner who won in three.

Two of those matches were on hard courts, and two were on red clay in Monte Carlo, where they both reside. Whatever the surface, the rallies were physical and hard-fought, and the loser made the winner earn it.

Two years ago, Sinner, 23, and Rune, 21, were both in the Top 10, and seen as future rivals. In 2024, their paths diverged. Sinner rose all the way to No. 1, while Rune dipped to No. 17, and fell off the short list of Grand Slam contenders. Sinner improved his serve, cut down on his errors, and learned to play with a decisive aggression. Rune, by contrast, seems unsure about his tactics, and prone to panic and rushing in important moments.

Read more: Holger Rune completes second five-set comeback at Australian Open, books Jannik Sinner fourth round

You can see the difference in their AO results so far. Sinner has dropped just one set in three matches, while Rune has played two five-setters and a fairly brutal four-setter against Matteo Berrettini. By the end of his third-round match, Rune seemed to be on the verge of cramping, but he found a way through.

He’ll need more than back-to-the-wall moxie against Sinner. Rune will have to find a way to take the initiative from him in rallies, to get him on the defensive, to take care of his serve, to keep his cool when things don’t go his way, and make Sinner lose his. It may be the toughest ask in the men’s game these days. Having already played 14 sets in a week will make it even tougher. Winner: Sinner

Ben Shelton vs. Gael Monfils

The 38-year-old Frenchman and the 22-year-old American have never faced each other, but we can predict that a meeting between them will be an athletically explosive one. Other than that, how it will go is anyone’s guess.

Monfils won a title in Auckland before this tournament, and survived a five-setter against his flame-throwing countryman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the first round in Melbourne. But it wasn’t until he upset No. 4 seed and title hopeful Taylor Fritz in four sets that his surge became official. Monfils and his wife, Elina Svitolina, who beat Jasmine Paolini to make the fourth round later in the day, seem to be on a married-couple mission Down Under.

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If you’ve followed Monfils for any stretch of time, though, you know that just when you think he’s ready to do bigger things…he doesn’t. Will this surge sputter against Shelton? The American, a big-stage lover and quarterfinalist here two years ago, has played with greater grit than normal so far, toughing out tight sets and crucial tiebreakers against solid opponents like Brandon Nakashima, Pablo Carreño Busta, and Lorenzo Musetti.

While you know that a Monfils march is bounded to come to an end, you just never know when. I’ll take a guess that it lasts one more round. Winner: Monfils

Elena Rybakina vs. Madison Keys

This is one of the those matches they you look forward to when a draw comes out. Two powerful hitters, both playing well to start the season, each with a chance to reach the semifinals or beyond.

They also have a dead-even head-to-head record. Keys won their first two matches, and Rybakina came back to win the next two, including their only meeting of 2024, on hard courts in Miami. Keys has won eight straight matches in Adelaide and Melbourne, while Rybakina, with new coach Goran Ivanisevic, hasn’t dropped a set this week.

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Rybakina is the higher seed, has the more effective first serve, and isn’t quite as streaky as Keys. That might normally be enough to make her the favorite here. But she also had her lower back looked at during her last round. If she’s less than 100%, that could be enough to give Keys the edge instead. Winner: Keys