Australian Open Tip Sheet: Betting on Thiem vs. Rublev, plus four other match-ups we like

Confessional Cart: Dominic Thiem

The second day of the 2023 Australian Open is sure to be exciting, with players like Novak Djokovic, Ons Jabeur and Taylor Fritz taking the court. But there are 64 total singles matches being played, and that makes for some difficult decisions for bettors. Let us help you narrow things down and lock in on some of the better money-making opportunities:

Dominic Thiem vs. Andrey Rublev

A former world No. 3 and 2020 US Open champion against the world No. 6? For a first-round match-up, it doesn’t get much better than that. Thiem’s recent form hasn’t been inspiring, but Rublev’s has been even worse. The Russian was a big favorite against Thanasi Kokkinakis in Adelaide last week, but he ended up losing in three sets. After having also lost to Roberto Bautista Agut in Adelaide the week before, we think Rublev is fade material. BEST BET: Thiem +5.5 games (-140)

Oleksii Krutykh vs. Diego Schwartzman

If you haven’t heard much about Krutykh, you’re not alone. But the Ukrainian was impressive in qualifiers, earning wins over Stefan Kozlov, Gianluca Mager and Denis Kudla. Now, he has a chance to knock out a struggling Schwartzman, who has lost each of his last eight matches. Look at this as though you’re betting against Schwartzman, rather than better on Krutykh. Back the underdog to cover the spread and consider putting a little timber on the moneyline. LEAN: Krutykh + 4.5 games (-130)

Ben Shelton vs. Zhizhen Zhang

Shelton is someone that you’re going to want to keep an eye on moving forward. The world No. 92 won a national championship at the University of Florida last year, and has made the full-time move to pro tennis. Shelton is an athletic, powerful lefty, with one of the best serves on the tour already. That weapon of his should allow him to advance to the second round, as Zhang just lost 6-2, 6-3 against Alexei Popyrin in Adelaide. Popyrin’s style of play isn’t all that different from Shelton’s, so we like the American to cover the small game spread. LEAN: Shelton -3.5 games (-125)

Leylah Fernandez vs. Alize Cornet

In what should be a fun match, we like Fernandez’s chances of beating Cornet to advance to the second round. These two have met before, with Fernandez earning a straightforward 6-2, 6-3 win at Indian Wells in 2021. The Frenchwoman has also lost three of the four matches (all since the start of December), and Fernandez is likely going to have plenty of crowd support. Considering Leylah already strikes the ball a bit more cleanly from the baseline, and has a better set of wheels, it’s hard not to roll with the 20-year-old. LEAN: Fernandez To Win (-145)

Garbine Muguruza vs. Elise Mertens

Muguruza is the better player between these two—when healthy. However, she is coming off a tough 2022 season and she hasn’t yet earned a victory to start the new year. That first win could very well come against Mertens, but we doubt it’ll happen without a fight. Mertens is a former Australian Open semifinalist and has never lost before the third round in Melbourne. She should be able to push Muguruza in what is very likely to be a three-set match. LEAN: Over 21.5 Games (-125)