For Jasmine Paolini, Barbora Krejcikova was one forehand and one serve too good in the Wimbledon final

Barbora Krejcikova stepped up to the baseline to serve, facing break point at 5-4 in third set. She blew on her racquet handle and bounced the ball a few times, in a last-ditch attempt to calm her nerves. She was in a place—on Centre Court, trying to close out a Wimbledon final—where her friend and mentor, the late Jana Novotna, had been on two occasions. The first time she was there, in 1993, Novotna had collapsed, in infamous fashion, to Steffi Graf. The second time, in 1998, she had held onto her nerve, by a thread, to beat Nathalie Tauziat.

Of those two endings, which would Krejcikova’s fate more closely resemble? At this stage, after three sets and nearly two hours on court with the scrappy, popular Jasmine Paolini, it was either going to be triumph or tragedy, 1993 or 1998.

Krejcikova, at 28, was playing her first Wimbledon final, but she started the match with the assurance and savvy of a five-time champion. She steamrolled past Paolini, 6-2 in the first set, making virtually all of her first serves, following them up with effortless crosscourt winners from her forehand side, and playing with a beautifully effective simplicity. Contrary to the expectations that the Italian would be the more vocal and passionate competitor, it was the normally low-key Krejcikova who punctured the sacred arena’s silence with constant shouts of self-encouragement.

And then, with all the momentum going her way, and Paolini scrambling just to stay in points, Krejcikova took her foot off the gas. Instead of powering through her two-handed backhand, she chopped at it tentatively and sent it limply into the net. Instead of rolling her forehands for winners, she struck them late and floated them wide. Worst of all, her first serve abandoned her.

With the door suddenly ajar, Paolini wasted no time kicking it wide open. Now it was her first-serve percentage that rose, her forehands that skidded through the grass for winners, and her first-pumps and shots that filled up Centre Court. When they could be heard over the roar of the crowd, that is. As she has been all tournament and all summer, Paolini was the fan favorite on Saturday.

“I was trying to refocus, to say to myself, “OK, it’s tough, but you have to start to hit the ball stronger and try to relax a little bit,” said Paolini, who had lost the first set to Donna Vekic in the semifinals before coming back to win.

With two quick 6-2 sets in the books, Krejcikova and Paolini moved on to play a winner-take-all third set for the title, knowing they may never get this close again to a Wimbledon victory. Both rose to the occasion, and played well at the same time. Paolini continued to attack and hold with relative ease, while Krejcikova rediscovered her serve when she needed it.

Two moments, one small and one big, stood out as match-turners. The first came with Krejcikova serving at 0-1 in the third. Paolini had just torn through the second set, and had started the third the same way, with a love hold that included an ace and two service winners. Could she keep this up all the way to the title, with the audience pushing her across the finish line? For a moment, it seemed possible.

When they changed ends, though, Paolini got a little over-aggressive on the first point of the next game and pushed a routine backhand long. That seemed to be just enough to restore Krejcikova’s confidence, or at least her determination. She held at love, with an ace and two service winners. In her next two service games, she lost just one point and hit two more aces.

The second, and much more obvious, match-changing moment came with Paolini serving at 3-3. Krejcikova, whose forehand was back in form, twice reached break point. On the second, Paolini barely missed a first serve down the T. It was close, so she challenged. The call was confirmed, and, after the delay, Paolini sent her second serve well long. It was her only double fault of the match, but it gave Krejcikova the break she needed.

“In the third we were holding the serves,” Krejcikova said. “I mean, I was just fighting for every single ball. I believe that I’m going to get the opportunity to break her, and I did.”

Then Krejcikova had to serve for the match at 5-4. Two points from the title, at 30-0, nerves struck. She double faulted badly, hit a backhand long, and then another backhand even farther over the baseline. By now, Paolini was just getting the ball back and letting her miss.

Krejcikova stepped to the baseline, blew on her racquet handle and bounced the ball to calm her nerves. Instead of finding herself at championship point, she was down break point.

“The only thing I was telling myself, ‘Just try to make a first serve and try to play your shot and just be brave,’” Krejcikova said of her mindset at that moment.

In case of emergency, though, she was ready to regroup.

“If it’s not going to work out, it’s going to be 5-all, and the match is not over,” she said. “The match is going to continue. I was quite prepared for both options.”

Krejcikova, like Novotna in 1998, was brave. She saved one break point with a strong forehand approach and a volley winner. She saved another with a go-for-broke forehand that landed on the sideline. She kept making first serves until, on her third championship point, Paolini’s return flew high into the air, and landed well out of the court.

“I have no idea why this tournament,” said Krejcikova, who hit five aces and 14 winners in the deciding set. “I had a really tough draw from the very first match. I was just going match by match. I was just feeling better and getting better.”

Krejcikova is the third straight surprise Wimbledon women’s champion, after Elena Rybakina in 2022 and her fellow Czech Marketa Vondrousova in 2023. Until the tour’s top two players, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, can extend their dominance to grass, this may be how it goes for the foreseeable future at the sport’s most famous tournament.

But if the finals are as dramatic and crowd-pleasing as this one, it shouldn’t matter how stunning the results are.