Which American will play best in 2025 Indian Wells and Miami?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2025 BNP Paribas Open begins on Wednesday, March 5—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

Next up: Which American will play best in 2025 Indian Wells and Miami?

JOEL DRUCKER: Taylor Fritz loves to compete. Hard courts bring out the best in him, most notably last September when, at the US Open, Fritz became the first American man to reach a Grand Slam singles final in 15 years. Having lost earlier than desired Down Under (in the third round to Gael Monfils), Fritz is eager to reassert himself this March. Recall how in ’22 he played some of the best tennis of his life to win Indian Wells, closing out a BNP Paribas Open title run with a convincing victory over Rafael Nadal in the final. Though Fritz has only gone 9-8 in Miami, just once reaching the quarters (’23), his strong work ethic could carry him far at both Sunshine Swing events.

LIYA DAVIDOV: Amanda Anisimova. This still-young American is back on the scene. She quickly broke into the Top 100 when she first debuted on tour but is only now enjoying a rise into the Top 20 after winning her first WTA 1000 tournament in Doha. Although she's missed seven Slams in the last three years, her game is at the intimidating level we’ve at her best and, most importantly, she is adaptable to any surface and nearly every player. Anisimova isn’t playing with the pressure to prove herself; she’s playing with a passion to win. As long as she can ride this wave and stay true to her game, this American may yet find herself challenging for the Top 10.

DAVID KANE: I'll go big and bet on surging American McCartney Kessler, who many on and off the court are still getting to know. The former college standout has hit the ground running since turning pro last year, winning her first WTA title in Cleveland and ending the season ranked inside the Top 70. She peaked inside the Top 50 earlier this year after winning her second title in Hobart and scored her first Top 10 win over Coco Gauff in Dubai. A new commodity and full of confidence, Kessler has all the makings of this year's Emma Navarro if she stays healthy through her first main-draw Sunshine Swing.

JON LEVEY: Ben Shelton has not done much at either tournament during his young career. However, he thrives on big moments in front of big crowds, and these events offer the possibility of both. So far, his winning percentage is much higher at Grand Slams, which is unusual for his stage of development. He’s bound to start breaking out in the best-of-three set format; again, these two spots present fitting opportunities. Shelton’s howitzer serve should be even more devastating in the thin desert air of Indian Wells, and he played his college ball in Florida, so he’s no stranger to Miami’s sticky conditions. Plus, he’s young enough to be motivated to go deep at both.

PETE BODO: I have to go with Emma Navarro on this one. The American men are in a bit of a lull. The old guard players led by Taylor Fritz are not conspicuously struggling so there’s no reason to panic. But they also lack momentum while the younger set may be another year or two from significant breakouts at home, where the pressure is greatest. Among the women, Australian Open champ Madison Keys probably isn’t very hungry, given her huge win Down Under, while Coco Gauff hasn’t won a match since the Australian Open. While a respectable 8-4 on the year, Jessica Pegula appears to be less driven than she has been in the past and her movement isn’t as good. Navarro is a fighter. She has gone three sets in six of her last eight matches (5-1). She was 5-2 during the 2024 Sunshine Double in her breakout 2024. The newest member of the US elite hasn’t been playing her best tennis yet this year, but she appears to be hungry and willing to fight to the bitter end.

ED MCGROGAN: A 1000-level title would be Tommy Paul’s most significant achievement, and to do it at Indian Wells or Miami would be even finer. Can he? It will be difficult, but of the many top-tier Americans who will compete in March, Paul may be the fittest of all. That goes a long way in the California desert and southern Florida. Paul has been knocking at the door of a breakthrough win for a while, and I could see him going deep at the BNP Paribas Open before finally getting over the hump in Miami.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: With Jannik Sinner sidelined, it’s time for Taylor Fritz to step up. The SoCal native likes this time of the year and enjoys these conditions—especially at Indian Wells where he won the 2022 title and holds a 20-7 record.

MATT FITZGERALD: Jessica Pegula has three WTA 1000 titles to her name, though would love to celebrate one on home soil for the first time. If not Indian Wells, Miami is the more likely place for the world No. 4 to cross this off her list with a pair of semifinal showings. That said, how does one not tip the incoming Australian Open champion Madison Keys despite her career records at the Sunshine Double? The newest member of the WTA's Top 5 will be fully fresh to run it back in her first appearance since that magical Melbourne fortnight.