Betting Preview: Coco Gauff vs. Aryna Sabalenka, Roland Garros final

Aryna Sabalenka just scored a huge win over Iga Swiatek, ending the Pole’s dominant three-year run at Roland Garros with a gritty three-set victory. It was a showcase of Sabalenka’s improved mental toughness. She could’ve lost her edge after dropping the second set, but instead, she raised her level and shut out Swiatek in the decider. Unsurprisingly, bettors are now jumping at the chance to back the world No. 1 in her final against Coco Gauff.

Sabalenka’s firepower poses a serious threat to Gauff. Still, Gauff’s relentless baseline defense and athleticism have caused Sabalenka headaches in the past, which explains why their head-to-head record is dead even. Notably, Gauff has managed to take a set in 70% of their matches, even in defeat—yet the odds don’t fully reflect her chances of doing it again.

There’s real value in backing Gauff to win a set, especially given the conditions.

The last time they played on slow clay was in Rome a few years back, and Gauff’s speed and return game proved too much for Sabalenka. While Sabalenka has improved her clay-court game—she’s great at mixing in dropshots, steadier from the baseline and moves better—slow courts still blunt her biggest weapons: her powerful serve and her baseline ball-bashing. That’s what allowed Swiatek to break her repeatedly, and Gauff should be able to put similar pressure on the Sabalenka serve.

Unlike their clash in Madrid, where faster conditions favored big servers, the slower surface here plays right into Gauff’s strengths. Whether the roof is open or closed, Gauff should be able to get into rallies and make Sabalenka work for every point. In the past, that has made Sabalenka’s skin crawl.

Gauff is also coming in with momentum, having just delivered a clean performance with her serve and forehand, areas where she’s struggled at times. Her win over Lois Boisson was her best win of the tournament. She had some big straight-set wins before outlasting Madison Keys in a dogfight in the quarterfinals, but the win over Boisson was the most straightforward performance. If she maintains that confidence, a second Grand Slam title is within reach. Plus, with the French crowd likely to rally behind her as the underdog, Gauff could get an extra lift, and Sabalenka might feel the pressure.

All signs point to a battle. Don’t be surprised if Gauff rises to the occasion.

Pick: Gauff +1.5 Sets (-155)