Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic: Breaking down a momentous Roland Garros semifinal

In this edition of The Rally, Joel and Steve talk about Tuesday’s impressive wins by Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic, and break down their momentous semifinal showdown on Friday.

Hi Steve,

Well, well, we indeed have the mouth-watering Roland Garros semifinal everyone considered when the draw was made: Carlos Alcaraz versus Novak Djokovic, set to take place Friday.

One notable news tidbit heading into this match is that each player has arrived at this stage in fine shape—seasoned, but hardly scarred. And while Alcaraz has competed at a high level all through the clay-court season, it’s been great to see Djokovic’s quality of tennis increasing after a few stumbles in the spring.

Djokovic was particularly impressive in the last three sets of his quarterfinal versus Karen Khachanov. The end of the second set once again revealed Djokovic’s unsurpassed excellence in tiebreakers. On the other hand, Alcaraz found himself playing just well enough in the third-set tiebreaker of his match against Stefano Tsitsipas to wrap it up in straight sets. Perhaps tiebreaker management will play a key role come Friday.

Many factors make this match rich with intrigue. New No. 1 versus longstanding No. 1. The 20-year-old Alcaraz seeks a credibility-enhancing second Grand Slam singles title. The 36-year-old Djokovic wants a record 23rd.

The two have only played each other once, Alcaraz beating Djokovic in the semis of Madrid 13 months ago. So technically, we’ve been waiting more than a year for their next match. And how great that it’s happening at a major.

But in another sense, I’ve been waiting more than a decade for this match to happen, back to the many hours I’ve spent talking over these many years with various players, parents, instructors and coaches about the complicated topic of player development.

Time and time again, I’ve heard these folks use such terms as “the modern game,” or, “the game of today.” Of course, going back to 2011, no one has shown more of what that’s about than Djokovic—crisp, efficient movements, backed most of all by repeatedly hard, penetrating groundstrokes. And so, I’ve listened to dozens of people pretty much dismiss just about every other playing style or tactic.

Finally, one day, I couldn’t take it any longer. Talking to the parent of a promising junior, I said, “The game of today? I don’t want your child to learn the game of today. I want them to learn the game of tomorrow. Because the game of tomorrow is the game that’s going to beat the game of today.”

And so, along came Carlos Alcaraz. Through his formative years, as much as he witnessed such greats as Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, Alcaraz and his coaching team envisioned the way he would answer the questions posed by those greats—and offer up new queries all his own. As Jimmy Connors once told me, “You study the greats, you learn from them, you find things from them that work for you. But then you find your own path and let yourself express who you’re about in your own way.” Just look at how Alcaraz has done this, certainly with baseline power, but also with the way he mixes up serves, comes to net, deploys the drop shot.

Now comes our chance to see the game of tomorrow attempt to further blossom versus the best possible opponent. Or might the longstanding legend make a statement of his own? This is precisely the kind of generational tussle we love to see in sports.

What excites you about this match, Steve?

PRESS CONFERENCE: Carlos Alcaraz, after setting up a semifinal with Djokovic ⬇️

Hi Joel,

Naturally, I share your sense of anticipation about this semifinal, for all the reasons you mentioned. As Djokovic himself said today, this is the match that “people want to see.”

For me, it will also liven up a Roland Garros men’s event that has felt a little flat without Rafael Nadal. I’ve missed the every-other-day drama of seeing Rafa put his virtually flawless record on the line. There was always that slight question in your mind, or at least in my mind, “Is this the day he loses in Paris?” Any time he dropped his serve, or was forced into a tiebreaker, or god forbid lost a set, it became must-see TV. The fact that he almost always won only made the possibility of defeat that much more momentous.

But Djokovic-Alcaraz will be momentous in its own right.

During the first set of his win over Khachanov, I found myself wondering whether the 36-year-old Djokovic still had it in him to prevail in a war of attrition with a 27-year-old who is as physical as Khachanov. I guess I shouldn’t have wondered. Djokovic took charge at the exact moment when he had to take charge, in the second-set tiebreaker, and then wore the younger man down.

Alcaraz’s win over Tsitsipas reminded me of many of Nadal’s victories in Paris over the years. Even against a top-ranked opponent, Rafa would raise his game on clay to an untouchable level, and cruise through three one-sided sets. That’s what Alcaraz did, dominating the rallies seemingly any way he wanted to—forehand winner, backhand winner, drop shot winner, serve and volley. What struck me most, though was how hard it was for Tsitsipas—and how hard it is for anyone—to hurt him in a rally. Whatever shot he has to track down, Alcaraz is there, with plenty of time to hit and recover.

Of course, as you noted, Alcaraz can also have his sudden, seemingly inexplicable dips in play, when he loses concentration, or overhits, or just gets tight—in other words, reminds us that he is indeed human. He had one of those in the third set on Wednesday, before correcting himself again in the tiebreaker.

You may be right that tiebreaker management could be a factor: in the only other match between Djokovic and Alcaraz, two of the three sets ended in tiebreakers, and each man won one. In that match, which was also played on clay and was among the best contests of 2022, neither Alcaraz nor Djokovic led by more than two games at any point—it was as competitive as tennis gets. Since then, Alcaraz has improved, and Djokovic has probably held steady—he was coming back from injury and finding his fitness again when he faced Alcaraz last spring. As we saw today, no one knows how to find his way through a tennis match, on a Grand Slam stage, like Novak Djokovic.

As you say, this feels like a battle between two overlapping eras. Djokovic will bring his tried and true, fortress-like mix of offense and defense, while Alcaraz will bring his state-of-the-art shot-making panache and nonpareil athleticism. It will hopefully be a clash we’ll remember far into the future.

Joel, how do you evaluate Alcaraz-Djokovic as a matchup?

Steve,

The Super Bowl-like significance of Alcaraz-Djokovic compels me to borrow from football. A coach once told me that when each team’s running game, passing game and defense are pretty close, then it might all come down to such intangibles as tactical agility, special teams and nerves.

So perhaps those three factors will settle the Xs and Os on Friday. When it comes to tactical agility, recall how Djokovic’s original tennis superhero was Pete Sampras. “He was the one that got me into tennis,” Djokovic once said, a reference most pointedly to the time he was six years old and watched Sampras win the 1993 Wimbledon final versus Jim Courier.

With that in mind, I’ve always been intrigued by how Djokovic would adjust to playing a frequent and skilled net-rusher like Sampras. Though Roger Federer has had his share of moments testing Djokovic this way, such aggression has been darn rare over the last two decades. How much will Alcaraz charge the net? How will it play out when he lines up to hit his kick serve in the ad court versus Djokovic’s fantastic backhand? While we can expect to see that sequence several times, might Alcaraz also occasionally move forward on a second-serve return and attempt to apply pressure with the rip-and-charge play?

And what will Djokovic do to counter and assert? As a start, to steal from another sport, baseball, I think versus Alcaraz that Djokovic—always a smart server—will need to channel his inner Greg Maddux and mix up his serves even more than usual, both to keep Alcaraz off-balance, as well as set up his own preferred next shot.

Then there are the rallies. How will Djokovic look to pin Alcaraz, be it with pace and accuracy from the baseline, or coming to the net more than usual? This year at Roland Garros, Djokovic has averaged 29 trips to net per match. Might he do this more against Alcaraz? No question, much as clay-court tennis requires more patience than any other surface, in the 21st century, Roland Garros titles have not been earned by defense.

Special teams with these two might also tilt on each man’s use of the drop shot. Djokovic over the years has learned to execute and follow up this shot superbly. He’s also great at tracking them down, a full-bodied, well-balanced scamper that reveals Djokovic’s capacity for cat-and-mouse maneuvers. But the case can be made that Alcaraz is well on the way to taking the drop shot to even higher levels of excellence; like a football punter who somehow always lofts the ball inside the 5-yard-line.

As far as nerves go, we saw some tentative play from Djokovic early versus Khachanov, and a tricky finish for Alcaraz at the end against Tsitsipas. Who knows if, how, or when they might surface on Friday?

Steve, how do you see pressure playing out in this match, both before and during?

Joel,

I’m glad you mention pressure, because the psychology of this encounter, at this point in time, is as interesting as anything else to me.

In their press conferences on Tuesday, each man used the same phrase: “If you want to be the best, you have to beat the best.” So there’s obvious mutual respect there.

Which makes me ask: Will either of them feel like he’s the favorite, or that it’s his match to lose? It’s rare to have a situation where both players have good reasons to believe they’re unbeatable. Alcaraz is No. 1 and, whenever he’s clicking—which is most of the time—his mix of speed and power is unmatched by anyone. Djokovic, meanwhile, has to feel as if he has mastered the art of Grand Slam, best-of-five tennis. He hasn’t lost to anyone at a major, except for Rafa in Paris, since 2021. No matter what happens in an opening set, or opening two sets, he knows he has the time to find his range, and he knows when to pick his spots to strike.

Djokovic says the way he came back to beat Khachanov should help him against Alcaraz.

“These kind of wins, you know, I think serve as a great confidence booster mentally, so also physically and emotionally for me,” he said. “It’s important to win a match where you were losing or you were being down and then you came back and [win]. So especially at the latter stages of a Grand Slam against the top players.”

As for Alcaraz, he sounded in his presser much like he looks when he’s on the court: A young man filled with unbridled, uncomplicated enthusiasm for what he does for a living.

“Since last year I really wanted to play again against Novak,” Alcaraz said. “You know, we both are playing a great level….So I’m really looking for that match. I’m gonna enjoy it.”

“For me, it’s amazing to make history, playing a semifinal with such a legend like Novak. So it’s gonna be a great match for me.”

For us, too.