Iga Swiatek avoids Doha upset bug with Noskova comeback

“I know how tennis works,” Iga Swiatek said earlier this week. “It doesn’t always depend on you if you win titles or not.”

“You just have to put hundred percent effort and commitment and you'll get your chances.”

The second seed proved herself right in her 6-7 (1), 6-4, 6-4 win over Linda Noskova on Wednesday. Or maybe it’s more accurate to say that Swiatek and Noskova combined to prove her right.

Noskova, a 20-year-old Czech ranked 33rd, may be best known for how well she matches up with Swiatek. She beat her at the Australian Open last January, and lost two close three-setters to her later in the year. Noskova has an excellent serve, which partially negates one of Swiatek’s primary weapons, her return. And she’s one of the few players who can stand toe-to-toe with Iga from the baseline and beat her with pace.

All of that was in evidence again on Wednesday. Noskova fired 16 aces. She held her own in rallies, exasperated Swiatek with her surprise ground stroke bombs from behind the baseline, and forced Iga to speed up her long forehand swing and make errors. Noskova rolled through the first set tiebreaker 7-1, held serve to start the second set, and went up 0-30 on Swiatek’s serve in the next game.

But just when Swiatek’s ship appeared to be sinking, she plugged the holes in her game. She came back to hold for 1-1, and eventually prevailed in a see-saw second set that was filled with break points and mini-shifts in momentum.

That back and forth quality continued all the way through the third set as well. The match was reminiscent of Ekaterina Alexandrova’s win over top seed Aryna Sabalenka the previous day. Each time the higher-ranked player—Swiatek, Sabalenka—seemed to have asserted her authority and taken the lead for good, the lower-ranked player—Noskova, Alexandrova—proved again that she could match her weapons. Stroke for stroke, there wasn’t a whole lot that separated No. 1 and 2 from No. 25 and 33.

Until the end, that is. On Tuesday, Alexandrova never tightened up or faltered when the finish line appeared on the her mental horizon. On Wednesday, Noskova did. With Swiatek serving at 3-4 in the third set, Noskova went up 0-30. A Swiatek defeat seemed highly plausible, considering that Sabalenka and No. 3 seed Coco Gauff had already been sent packing this week.

Except that, in this case, Noskova couldn’t make it happen. She could barely get a ball in play.

Noskova missed two returns to make it 30-30, and another return to give Swiatek the game. At 4-4, Noskova missed three forehands and was broken. On Iga’s second match point, she belted a forehand into the net.

For most of three sets, Noskova showed how little difference there is between a top player and a second-tier player. Then she spent the last three games showing what that difference is. She was the one who couldn’t modulate her strokes and play with a little more margin when she was nervous. Swiatek could.

“Every match with Linda is always super-tough,” said Swiatek, who won her 14th straight match in Doha dating back to 2021. “Wasn’t easy with her serve, which was kind of perfect.”

Yesterday I wondered whether Sabalenka’s loss might signal a shift at the top of the WTA in Swiatek’s direction. Since 2022, Iga has used Doha as a launching point for a run of dominance that lasts through Roland Garros.

Today she almost failed to launch. But by now, as she said, Swiatek knows how tennis works. Winning doesn’t always depend on what you do; it can also mean hanging around and giving it your best until your opponent loses.