Iga Swiatek vs. Mirra Andreeva: Where to Watch, Indian Wells Preview, Betting Odds

Where to Watch

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The winner of this match will face Madison Keys or Aryna Sabalenka in the final.

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BNP Paribas Open Match Preview

“There’s a lot to analyze and learn from,” Swiatek says of her most recent match against Andreeva, which took place last month in Dubai.

It’s true, Iga and her highly analytical coach, Wim Fissette, will surely take a close look at what happened that day, because they don’t want a repeat of the result. Andreeva put on a brilliant, borderline-dominant performance to record her first win over the five-time Grand Slam champ, 6-3, 6-3.

On most days, Andreeva is a patient and methodical player who is happy to defend with her slice forehand, extend rallies, mix in drop shots, and wait for the right moment to pull the trigger on a counter-punching ground stroke. And she did a fair amount of that against Swiatek in Dubai; her powerfully precise passing shots were the difference in the match. But when she could, she also tried to take the initiative, even though that’s never an easy thing to do with Iga.

“I knew that if I don’t play aggressive that she’s going to go and kill me,” Andreeva said afterward. “I think everybody knows that she likes to take the ball early. She doesn’t give time to her opponents. She always tries to be the first one to attack…Sometimes I just told myself or kind of forced myself to be more aggressive.”

She also realized pretty quickly that the drop shot was a non-starter against the speedy Swiatek.

“Sometimes, I don’t know, I do 20 drop shots in the match,” Andreeva said. “I think today I did only one or two. They didn’t really work, so I stopped doing them right away.”

That meeting was less than a month ago, but much can change in tennis even during that short amount of time. Andreeva’s victory over Swiatek, and her first 1000 title, which she won later that week, make this rematch feel like a bigger deal. Swiatek vs. Aryna Sabalenka, No. 1 vs. No. 2, is still the most-anticipated WTA showdown, but the stakes for Swiatek vs. Andreeva have risen. Now it seems like a preview of future Slam finals and battles for No. 1 to come.

More important, Swiatek appears to be a different player in Indian Wells than she was in Doha and Dubai. Not that this should come as a surprise. She’s a two-time champion at this event, and she dropped just 21 games in six matches here a year ago. The slow courts and relaxed atmosphere suit her, and the balls aren’t the same “super-heavy” ones that she says she struggled to serve with in the Middle East. The upshot is that Swiatek has regained her vintage steamrolling style; she has lost 12 games in four rounds.

In her last match, a 6-3, 6-3 win over Zheng Qinwen, Swiatek avenged a defeat from last year’s Olympics. Afterward, she admitted that getting payback is part of the motivation.

“It’s not nice to lose to anybody, so for sure you want to have a little, I don’t know, like revenge, but it’s nothing personal,” she said.

You can add that to the list of reasons why Swiatek will be especially fired up for this semifinal. Andreeva not only beat her in their last meeting, but as a semifinalist in Paris last year, she’s a threat to Iga’s Roland Garros crown. Expect Swiatek to come out looking to move the 5-foot-9 Andreeva into the corners, take advantage of that defensive slice forehand she sends back, and close with more conviction than she did in Dubai.

As for Andreeva, she sounds like someone who will be swinging freely, and won’t be surprised if things go differently than they did last time.

“Tomorrow is going to be a new day, new match, new conditions, new country. Everything is different,” she said. “I’m sure that the match is going to be great, because our head-to-head is 1-all. I think it’s going to be an entertaining match, and we’re just going to see who is going to be better tomorrow.” Winner: Swiatek—Steve Tignor

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Betting Odds

Swiatek is a -165 moneyline favorite; Zheng is a +130 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 9:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 13)

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