Are Indian Wells and Miami more important for Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek or Coco Gauff?

With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2025 BNP Paribas Open begins on Wednesday, March 5—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.

Last up: Are Indian Wells, Miami more important for Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, or Coco Gauff?

DAVID KANE: Aryna Sabalenka arrived in the Middle East poised to take the two WTA 1000-level hard-court tournaments by storm and further increase her lead atop the rankings. While she made a modest addition to her total, she showed worrying signs of burnout after a flat loss to Clara Tauson in Dubai, admitting she lacked the hunger many have come to expect from the three-time Grand Slam champion, one coming off a heartbreaking loss in the finals of the Australian Open. With Iga Swiatek defending the BNP Paribas Open title, Sabalenka's top spot is unlikely to be under threat in March, but Sabalenka will want to end the hard-court swing on a high note in the hopes of setting the tone for another competitive clay-court swing, where she reached back-to-back finals last year.

STEPHANIE LIVAUDAIS: After a three-year stint of dominating the WTA Tour, Iga Swiatek now finds herself seeking her first title in nearly 10 months—since her victory at 2024 Roland Garros. A strong showing in the Sunshine Swing would go a long way to silence doubters.

LIYA DAVIDOV: Coco Gauff. While all three haven't enjoyed the dominance they appeared poised to share in January, Gauff has perhaps taken the most worrying backslide after her stirring run at the United Cup, where she led the U.S. team to the title. Significantly behind Sabalenka and Swiatek in the rankings race, a strong performance during the Sunshine Swing would boost Gauff back into the conversation.

PETE BODO: While Sabalenka and Swaitek have some doubts to quell and some momentum to regain, the upcoming tournaments loom more significant for Coco Gauff. The main reason is that they are “home games” as far as tennis goes (Gauff lives just a short drive up I-95 from Miami, in Delray Beach). This is a good time for Gauff to get her game sorted after she burned away a lot of the momentum she accumulated during her strong finish in 2024 (she was on a 13-2 run when the year ended). Gauff’s game has fluctuated this year as she continues to iron out kinks in her forehand and erratic serve, but bear in mind that she’s just 20-years old. And it isn’t like she’s the only top player who performed poorly in Dubai and Doha, which is enough to make you wonder just how seriously the players take the middle eastern events.

ED MCGROGAN: It feels big for all of them, considering their very-good-but-not-great starts to their seasons. The better question may be, who needs positive momentum most before the clay stretch? On dirt, Swiatek can turn it on like vintage Rafa, and Gauff, despite her recent struggles, has won her last three matches against Iga and Aryna. So to me, it’s actually Sabalenka. The world No. 1 is 1-3 in her last four, so the pressure will be on right away. She seemingly hasn’t put her Australian Open final loss in the rearview but she needs to—and needs to start winning again—in order to properly prepare for Roland Garros.

JOEL DRUCKER: Along with California, Florida is America’s preeminent tennis state. The Sunshine State is also Coco Gauff’s home and she’s naturally eager to cap off March with a great run there. But in five appearances at the Miami Open, Gauff has never gone past the round of 16. Last year, seeded third in Miami, Gauff was beaten at that stage by the streaky Caroline Garcia. Indian Wells has been better, highlighted by a semifinal effort last year, Gauff lost a tight three-setter to Maria Sakkari. The thinking here is that the Sunshine Swing is not quite as important for multi-Slam winners Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek. But after some frustrating early year results, Gauff is primed to generate significant results at both events.

JON LEVEY: All three come into the swing limping to a certain degree. Sabalenka appears to be struggling with an Australian Open finals loss hangover. Swiatek has a solid match record, but can’t put together a full tournament. However, it’s Gauff who is in the most need of a solid stretch. She won her first nine matches of the season, but unless she takes a last-minute wildcard somewhere, she’s going to be carrying a three-match losing streak into Indian Wells. It’s a small sample size, yet patches of untimely double faults continue to be an issue for Gauff. She also hasn’t had a great deal of success during her career at either stop, which would make a return to form and a dominant month of tennis all the more important.