Jannik Sinner took “a straight punch to my face” from Tommy Paul, then punched his ticket to the Rome final

Should the rest of us be so sanguine? Sinner was clearly (a) grabbing at his right hamstring at the start of the third set of that match, and (b) moving gingerly on it during at least one rally near the end.

As he says, we’ll just have “to see what’s coming” on Sunday and hope for the best. Because otherwise, this should be a special moment for the men’s game. It’s the third final between two guys who look destined to be at the top of the sport for the next decade, and the most important of their meetings to date. While they’ve already played 10 times, that still doesn’t feel like enough.

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Alcaraz seems to agree.

“It could be great, I’m not gonna lie,” he said when he was asked about the prospect of playing Sinner, before he knew who his opponent would be. “[Playing] him in the final would be even more challenging, playing against him at home with the people behind him supporting him.”

Alcaraz has mostly been up the challenge of facing Sinner. He has won six of their 10 matches. More importantly and surprisingly, he has won the last three, all of which came after Sinner made his rise to the top of the rankings. The need for maximum focus seems to bring out the best in Alcaraz; he tends to take an early punch from Sinner, and then raise his game to match the Italian’s. So far Alcaraz’s ceiling, as far as speed and shot-making goes, has been higher than Sinner’s.

Win Probability J. Sinner

57.4%

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But not much higher. All three of Alcaraz’s recent wins have gone the distance. That includes a five-set semifinal at Roland Garros last year, and a final in Beijing last fall that ended 7-6 in the third. Sinner says there are no secrets between them at this stage.

“I feel like we both know how to play against each other a little bit, so we have to be prepared tactically,” he said. “Of course, small things are going to be changed.”

Right now, they at two slightly different stages in their Roland Garros preparation. Sinner is just getting re-acclimated to match play, mentally and physically, after a three-month suspension. He says he needs all of the challenges he can get.

“It’s just a great test for me to see where I am,” Sinner says. “Great for me to play against Carlos before the two Grand Slams.”

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Alcaraz is a little farther down the road toward Paris. This week he has played like someone locking in on a Grand Slam title defense, and sending messages to his closest rivals.

“I think it’s an opportunity to be better, to improve.” Alcaraz says of his Rome campaign. “I’m going to say I’m ready for the final. I’m excited to play my first final here in Rome. I have a lot of confidence. I know that I’m feeling great, I’m playing great tennis.”

Along with being their biggest final so far, this will be the first title match in Rome for both men. Sinner will have the crowd. Alcaraz will have the surface; they’re 1-1 on clay, but it still favors the Spaniard. Alcaraz is normally the more up and down player, but I’ll say that, with Sinner just returning to the tour, he may have his own peaks and valleys. And then there’s his leg to consider.

I’ll take the guy who seems the healthiest, and is a little farther along the road to Roland Garros. Winner: Alcaraz

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