Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud: Where to watch their Rome quarterfinal, preview and prediction

What matters more? Head-to-head? Surface? Recent results? In the case of Sinner vs. Ruud, two of those metrics tell a very different story than the other about how their quarterfinal will turn out.

Sinner dominates the head-to-head. He’s 3-0 vs. Ruud, he’s won all six of sets, and he’s not letting the gap narrow. Sinner won their most recent match, on indoor hard courts at the ATP Finals last fall, 6-1 6-2. Even Ruud had to admit that he “gotten beaten pretty bad by Jannik that day.”

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Ruud acknowledges that the rematch down the road in Rome will be “one of the toughest of the year.” But while the crowd will be against him again, the courts won’t be this time. Ruud has had more success overall in his career so far than Sinner. That may change, of course, but the former Rafa Academy student has the good wheels and heavy forehand that usually spell success on dirt. In Sinner’s last match, Francisco Cerundolo showed how a clay-courter can make inroads on the Italian with a forehand like that.

This is the best surface for Ruud to face Sinner, and it may be the best moment as well. While Sinner has been suspended for three months, and is just getting used to the rigors of match play again, Ruud is coming off the biggest title of his career, on clay in Madrid.

That said, in this case, I’ll take the head to head, and Sinner’s preternatural calm and confidence in tight moments, over everything else. Winner: Sinner

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Win Probability J. Sinner

75.5%

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