Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev: Tangibles and intangibles that will determine a semifinalist

NEW YORK—The Labor Day US Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Nuno Borges was interrupted for a few minutes because a fire alarm briefly knocked out the electronic line-calling system.

As it turned out, the only thing on fire in the vicinity was Medvedev, the 2021 champion at Flushing Meadows who was busy blazing through a win that returned him to the quarterfinals—where, on Wednesday, he’ll face top-ranked Jannik Sinner. Medvedev lost just four games in three sets in his win over Borges.

In a festive night match on Arthur Ashe stadium, Sinner kept his end of the upcoming date with a less-commanding three-set win over Tommy Paul, who squeezed two tiebreakers out of the Italian contender.

The pending quarterfinal is easier to analyze than to predict. Medvedev and Sinner have each lost but one set en route to this contest. Medvedev has lost just one more game (38) than Sinner on the trail. In numerous other statistical departments, their numbers are similar.

With all the hoo-ha about Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz having lost, and home crowd favorite Frances Tiafoe having won, it was easy to overlook this pair, the only two Grand Slam champions in the fourth-round field.

Let’s look at the match-up that may produce this year’s champion through two lenses: the quantifiable and the intangible.

Tangibles

Daniil Medvedevwas the only US Open champion left in the field by the fourth round. But he is in the midst of a puzzling year—no great surprise given this 28-year-old’s complicated personality and game. Although he’s still ranked No. 5, his quotidian production is down; he hasn’t won a title this year, losing finals to Alcaraz (Indian Wells) and Sinner (Australian Open). The latter defeat is the most relevant here.

Sinner lost the first two sets in that final, but he came roaring back to win in five, with nary a tiebreaker among them (clearly, each of these men can break the other’s serve). It’s a safe bet that Medvedev will be on alert, unwilling to let a similar opportunity slip. He is a defensive ultra-man, something of a rarity among the titans of tennis (at 6’6”, he’s the tallest of all Grand Slam champions). He learned the hard way, around 2018, that he needed to find a better way to handle big serves and to engage in rallies on an equal footing.

Going against the trend in the game, he began to field serves from far behind the baseline.

“I figured out I can beat a lot of players like this,” he said on Monday. “It's maybe not ideal 100 percent of the time, but [it is effective].” Look for him to at least start the match with that tactic.

Medvedev leads the tournament in successfully converting break points, recording 29 thus far. Sinner is not far behind, having won 25. Medvedev ranks sixth in winning second-serve return points, with 108. Sinner is 12^th, with 93. The margin is not that great.

There is a clear DIY element in Medvedev’s style of play, which is a major point of difference. The combination of Medvedev’s quirky game, his great quickness and defense, surprising stamina and a powerful serve make for a real hodge-podge that can be very hard to handle for a player like Sinner, who prefers straight-ahead tennis.

Jannik Sinnerhas accumulated a record as the perhaps the cleanest ball-striker in the ATP. He gives away three inches of height to his opponent, but that helps him achieve a great balance between his stroking precision and the physicality that enables him, at the age of 23, to compete with more mature veterans.

Like Medvedev, Sinner is long-limbed. He has similar range covering the court, but less of a capacity for improvisation. His strength is in the ability to get to an opponent’s shots with enough time to produce those accurate, heavy shots that take time away from opponents and force errors.

“He plays a super fast-paced tennis game,” Paul said after losing to Sinner on Monday. “He's unreal out of the corners. Hits a quality ball every time the ball is on his racquet. I mean, that’s kind of what separates him.”

In comparing Sinner with Alcaraz, Paul made the point that the Spanish star is more of an all-courter, more comfortable than Sinner in varying his pace and depth and approaching the net. You can bet that Medvedev will try to exploit Sinner’s bread-and-butter style by drawing him out of his baseline comfort zone.

Paul also noted that Sinner has that champion’s knack for “stepping up” when serving key points. Sinner said that important points get him excited, and he recognizes that you have to take chances at such times. He may have a few surprises of his own in store.

“You have to maybe change up a couple of things, trying to surprise him [an opponent].” said Sinner. “I get more excited during important points.”

Look for this to be a chess match between a crafty server (Sinner) and an unorthodox returner, and for Medvedev to do anything possible to tamper with the almost metronomic flow of Sinner’s steel-solid baseline game.

Medvedev framed it this way: “I feel like in a way we know our games, what we will try to bring on the table. And then it always comes down to this deuce, this breakpoint, [should I] maybe try to surprise him or not?  What he will do, what I will do?”

Intangibles

There’s a myth about US Open fans having a beef with Medvedev, one that began in 2019. That year, Medvedev sparred with the Louis Armstrong Stadium crowd during and following his third-round win, ultimately rubbing the spectators’ collective nose in his victory. But those days are long gone, replaced by warm and fuzzy feelings all around.

Medvedev has left enough of his heart out on the other giant venue, Arthur Ashe Stadium, in both triumph and disaster, to become a familiar crowd favorite. Their support—or, if prodded, lack thereof—is likely to become part of the narrative.

“I have a lot of success here at US Open,” Medvedev said following his win over Borges. “I love it, it’s my favorite tournament to play in, and my favorite city.”

Given that there’s so little to choose between these two men in quantifiable ways on stat sheet, Medvedev’s experience on Ashe as a three-time finalist (he’s 1-1 against Djokovic, and he lost the 2019 final to Nadal) looms significant. It is the closest thing he has to a home court.

By contrast, Sinner is a greenhorn. There’s a big difference between the vibe in Australia, where Sinner claimed his sole major title, and New York. He’s 17-5 (including qualifiers) in New York, and his best previous performance was a 2022 quarterfinal.

This fortnight, Sinner has also had to navigate repeated questions raised by a doping controversy that triggered headlines just a week before the start of the tournament. He may be somewhat worn down mentally from having to defend himself against allegations—and legitimate questions—about his exoneration in that scandal.

Prediction: Medvedev in four sets