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Where to Watch

🖥️📱 Click here for live coverage on TennisChannel.com (estimated start time 3:10 p.m. ET, Saturday, April 26)

The winner of this match will face Karen Khachanov or Reilly Opelka in the third round.

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MATCH POINT: Joao Fonseca breaks serve against Elmer Moller to progress in Madrid

Mutua Madrid Open Match Preview

Saturday's marquee match gets late-night billing—it won't start until around 10 p.m. local time. It should be worth the wait.

Fonseca, and his shotmaking that belies his age, will be opposed by one of the sport's most athletic baseliners in Paul. The American isn't allergic to red clay, though this match will be his first in Europe this season. Between that fact, the surging talent across the net and the evening crowd that will likely back Fonseca, Paul will have a lot to overcome in a short period of time.

Fonseca also played his first match on clay this week, a 6-2, 6-3 win over Elmer Moller. “I love playing on clay. I was born on the clay, so I like to play on it, even with altitude,” he said afterward. “I like to focus on my serves and play aggressive, so feeling good this week.”

Paul, ranked 12th, is a sizable underdog in the betting market, but it's more of a pick'em to me. Both players feel on the verge of a big result this season, and either would be disappointed with an early loss, despite their difficult draws. In the end, I'll go with experience, even if the 18-year-old is earning lots of that already. Winner: PaulEd McGrogan

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Betting Odds

Fonseca is a -200 moneyline favorite; Paul is a +154 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 10:45 a.m. ET on Friday, April 25)

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