Laver Cup VI: Who’s new? Who has something to prove? Who’s going to win?

The Laver Cup has reached its long-awaited transitional stage. The event’s co-creator and public face, Roger Federer, has retired, and he has taken the rest of the Big Four with him. Last year, Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray gathered in London to send the Swiss Maestro off in tearfully epochal style. This year, only Federer has made the trip to Vancouver, where he’ll play the role of the most popular spectator in the arena.

This isn’t the first time Laver Cup has gone without the ATP’s most famous names. None of the Big Four played in Boston in 2021, yet the seats were full, the crowd was enthusiastic, and the unique atmosphere that the event creates remained intact. I would expect the same this weekend in Canada. There won’t be anything as dramatic or meaningful as Federer’s retirement party, but the Laver Cup’s boisterous take on team tennis is well-established by now. The players know they’re supposed to bring the energy on the sidelines, as well as on court.

It would be nice to say that the Big Four’s most energetic successor, Carlos Alcaraz, will be on hand to smooth the transition. But the Spaniard has a full fall schedule—he’ll be in Beijing and Shanghai, starting next week—and a year-end No. 1 ranking to fight for. Instead, Alcaraz’s fellow 20-year-old, Ben Shelton, will do his best to inject some youthful excitement—and controversy?—into the competition.

Here’s a look ahead at the storylines to watch over this long, tennis-filled weekend, as Team Europe and Team World face off for a seventh time.

Who’s New?

An interesting collection of young, and not so young, players will make their Laver Cup debuts in Vancouver.

Shelton will be joined by three others who have had breakout seasons in 2023, 19-year-old Arthur Fils, 25-year-old Francisco Cerundolo and 27-year-old Chris Eubanks (who is an alternate). The other first-timers—Tommy Paul, Hubert Hurkacz, Alexander Davidovich Fokina, Gael Monfils—are well-known. How is it possible that La Monf has never been part of Laver Cup before?

Monfils, Shelton, Fils and Eubanks should add entertainment value, while Paul, Cerundolo and Davidovich Fokina will bring prime-age athleticism. How about Hurkacz? His teammates are already calling the genial, 26-year-old Pole a “calming influence.” Every team needs a few of those, too.

Who Has Something to Prove?

Last year’s Laver Cup was a special one for Felix Auger-Aliassime and Frances Tiafoe. The Canadian dug deep to beat Djokovic and Matteo Berrettini, while Tiafoe sealed the first Cup win for Team World with two upset victories: on Saturday, the American and partner Jack Sock stunned Federer and Nadal in Federer’s final match; on Sunday, Tiafoe edged Stefanos Tsitsipas to clinch the tie.

At the time, Tiafoe’s strong results were an extension of his semifinal run at the US Open. He was on the rise, and he would keep rising, at least until this summer. Now he returns to Laver Cup in something of a slump, having suffered disappointing losses at Wimbledon and the US Open, and ending the U.S.’ Davis Cup hopes with a regrettable racquet smash. Can Tiafoe put that behind him and generate some new momentum in a format that gives him a little more freedom?

The same can asked of Auger-Aliassime. His win over Djokovic last year launched him to the best form of his career, and three straight titles in October. But a knee injury has hampered him in his follow-up season, he’s just 14-15 in 2023 and he lost in the first round at Roland Garros, Wimbledon and the US Open. FAA, if healthy and not too rusty, couldn’t ask for a better place to turn things around than at a home-country Laver Cup.

Who’s Going to Win?

By 2021, some of us had begun to wonder if Team World would ever get a Laver Cup. With Federer leading the way, Europe won the the first four editions. But even when the Big Four were absent in 2021, Europe was every bit as dominant, winning in humiliating fashion, 14-1. The men’s game was top-heavy with Euros, and Laver Cup showed it.

That finally changed in 2022, as Auger-Aliassime and Tiafoe led a high-spirited World team past an aging European squad having its last hurrah together. Where does that leave us in 2023? Probably pretty even, at least on paper.

Europe has two Top 10 players, Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, who are also a combined 5-0 in Laver Cup. Maybe that’s why Europe’s captain, Bjorn Borg, is holding them out of Friday’s singles play, and saving them for Saturday, when each victory is worth two points instead of just one.

Team World is led by three Americans: No. 8-ranked Taylor Fritz, No. 11 Tiafoe and No. 13 Paul. Fritz is 2-1 in past competitions, and we know about Tiafoe’s exploits from 2022. Like Borg, Team World captain John McEnroe had held his bigger guns out of Friday’s singles.

Instead, opening day will showcase the newcomers. Shelton will take on Fils to start the day session, followed by Davidovich Fokina vs. Cerundolo. The night will begin with a popular match-up between Auger Aliassime and Monfils, followed by doubles between Rublev-Fils and Tiafoe-Paul.

Few matches are a lock in Laver Cup—witness Djokovic’s 2-3 record in the event. And the lineups can be changed pretty much at any time. Ruud will likely play a big role for Team Europe, and either Fritz or FAA should do the same for Team World.

And what about Team World’s second alternate, Milos Raonic? Could we see the home-country legend jump off the bench to play a hero’s role on Sunday? That would be very Laver Cup.

Winner: Team Europe