With the Sunshine Swing about to get underway—the 2025 BNP Paribas Open begins on Wednesday, March 5—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions heading into Indian Wells and Miami.
First up: Which player has the most to prove in March?
PETE BODO: Novak Djokovic doesn’t have anything to prove in the big picture, but the “small picture” counts as well, and that means the acclaimed GOAT needs to show that he’s still relevant instead of just taking a victory lap. The Serbian star has pocketed a mind-blowing 11 titles at the Sunshine Double (five in Indian Wells, six in Miami), but he abandoned his recent Australian Open semifinal with injury, and he’s just 2-2 in his other tournaments in 2025. He hasn’t won a tournament since late 2023. Djokovic was stunned by lucky loser Luca Nardi in the second round at Indian Wells last year, and pulled out of Miami for the fourth year in a row—presumably to spare himself for the clay season. A poor showing in the desert would trigger a red flag.
JOEL DRUCKER: In September 2023, Holger Rune was ranked No. 4, right in the thick of things with such peers as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz. “We cannot compare ourselves at all yet to Novak, Rafa and Roger,” the Dane said last summer. “But the fact that people are starting to talk about the Next Big 3 is exciting. . . hopefully they’ll be calling us the next Big Three.” But Rune tumbled out of the Top 10 last April, hasn’t reached a final in over a year, and is now ranked 13th. Last year, he lost in the quarters of Indian Wells and the second round of Miami. Might the ’25 edition of the Sunshine Swing be Rune’s chance to vault back into the elite?