Rome Betting Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti

On Friday, two of the world’s most spectacular shot makers will battle for a spot in the Internazionali BNL d’Italia final, as world No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is set to face Lorenzo Musetti at the Foro Italico. This is a rematch of the final in Monte-Carlo a month ago, when Alcaraz earned a 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 victory over a banged-up Musetti. But the Italian is healthier heading into this semifinal showdown, and he’s going to be playing with the full crowd on his side.

That should be enough for Musetti to at least push Alcaraz to a decider, and you can get the Italian to win a set at -125 odds.

If you listen to Tennis Bets Live, hopefully you took Alcaraz to win the third quarter and Musetti to win the fourth, along with the plays on both of them to win a title in Rome. If you did, there’s no reason to play anything here. Just sit back and hope that the winner can do a better job of making Jannik Sinner look human than Casper Ruud did. But if you don’t already have something tied up in either of these guys, taking Musetti to win a set is the way to go.

Read more: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Where to watch their Rome semifinal, preview and pick

While Alcaraz is 4-1 in this head-to-head series, it wasn’t a fluke that the Italian won a set in that Monte-Carlo final. Musetti is a different player in 2025 than he was in 2024, and he and Alcaraz hadn’t clashed since last year’s Miami Open. This season, Musetti has career-highs in winning percentage (80.9%), hold percentage (80.9%) and break percentage (26.2%). And after never having made the semifinals of a Masters 1000 prior to 2025, Musetti is already into his third of the year.

Musetti has always been a world-class player when it comes to finding angles, hitting scorchers and making his way onto highlight reels. But he has improved as a server, gotten better with point construction and has found ways to stay a little more solid within matches. Combining that with the way his elite athleticism helps him defend the baseline, along with his fighting mentality, makes him a very difficult player to beat.

Alcaraz has dialed things in and played some good tennis on clay this season, but he still runs hot and cold. He’s always capable of playing a mistake-prone set of tennis, and his serve still gets him into trouble. Alcaraz’s first serve in percentage (65.1%) is lower than it has been since 2021, and his hold percentage is down at 83.9%. That’s also the lowest mark he has had since 2021.

If Alcaraz doesn’t have a fantastic service day, Musetti is going to get on the board with some breaks in this match. That alone should help the Italian win a set. But Musetti can also find a way in by just making a lot of balls, playing with shape and waiting out Alcaraz errors. Those can come at any moment, but they might come at a higher clip with Alcaraz playing in a hostile environment. He’s used to being the fan favorite.

It'd just be stunning to see Musetti go down without a fight in front of his home fans. And I actually think he's live to win the match. Alcaraz's 6-4, 6-4 win over Jack Draper last match wasn't as straightforward as the score would suggest. Draper had his chances to win, but inner mental struggles got the better of him. Let's see Alcaraz play that same way against an in-form Musetti. I suspect it won't go very well.

Pick: Musetti +1.5 Sets (-125)