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There was never any reason to doubt Jack Draper’s clay-court ability. While British players aren’t known for their ability to perform on the dirt, Draper’s style was always going to translate nicely to clay. So it wasn’t too surprising to see him go all the way to the final in Madrid, where he probably should have won his match against Casper Ruud.

What’s really important, though, is that Draper looked a little tired in that third set, and he’s now in Rome after playing six matches during an emotional week in Spain. It’s hard to go deep at one event and then play well at the next, and that means Draper should be on Upset Watch early at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. That’s why I’m taking Luciano Darderi to win a set.

The last time we saw Draper make a 1000-level final was at Indian Wells, where he won his maiden Masters title. Draper followed that performance up with a straight-set loss to Jakub Mensik in Miami. Mensik went on to win that tournament, so that’s hardly a bad loss. But Draper didn’t exactly play well in that match, and Mensik was banged up early in the event. If Draper is anything less than 100 percent against Darderi, the Brit could be in for another early-round battle.

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SPEECH: Jack Draper Finalist Speech | 2025 Madrid Open

Not only will Draper be prone to a physical and mental letdown in Rome, but the conditions there are nothing like those in Madrid. The Brit’s big serve and powerful baseline strokes were extremely difficult for opponents to deal with at altitude. In Rome, players will have an easier time reading his serves, and they’ll also have a little more time to track down shots along the baseline. So, Draper’s ability to end rallies might be weakened a bit.

Darderi is also a very good clay-court player, and he’s playing in front of his home crowd. It wasn’t long ago that Darderi won a title in Marrakech, earning straight-set wins over Roberto Carballes Baena and Tallon Griekspoor in the final two matches. And while he has struggled a little since, this is a really good spot for him. Darderi has a good serve, a big forehand and the ability to come out on top in longer rallies. And to add to all of that, nobody expects him to win this match. So, while playing at home can sometimes lead to more pressure, he’s really in a house-money situation in which he’ll have a ton of adrenaline.

Overall, it shouldn’t surprise anybody if Draper comes out on top. This is a Top 5 player in the world playing against the world No. 46. There’s a significant gap in talent. But sometimes you have to take risks and play spots. Betting on sports is never as simple as “better player/team wins.” So, with this being a favorable spot for Darderi, I’m playing him to force a decider—and I’m also sprinkling the moneyline.

Pick: Darderi +1.5 Sets (-110)