Rome Betting Preview: Marie Bouzkova vs. Naomi Osaka

There are many compelling matches on the schedule in Rome on Saturday, but the one I’m focused on is Naomi Osaka’s meeting with Marie Bouzkova. Osaka has had a strange season—she looked practically unbeatable to start the year, before injuries started to pile up. But she’s healthy right now, and you can’t question her commitment: Osaka wanted to play some more matches to find her game last week, so she went and played a WTA 125 in Saint Malo. She played five matches, and won them all. Now, coming off that quick title run, it’s hard not to be impressed with her form. And I like the 27-year-old’s chances of covering the game spread against Bouzkova.

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I had Bouzkova to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia in her last match, and the Czech rolled to a 6-0, 6-3 win over the Brazilian. However, that play was really a fade of Haddad Maia more than anything else. The Brazilian just hasn’t played well in 2025. Neither has Bouzkova, who is just 9-8 since the start of the season, and her hold percentage is way down from where it was the last three years. That’s just one of the main reasons to worry about her against Osaka.

If Bouzkova gives Osaka a lot of looks at her second serve, this is a match that can get out of hand quickly. Osaka still has world-class power from the baseline, and she’s going to be aggressive when she gets looks at slower serves. And once she does connect with a few return winners, that should put even more pressure on Bouzkova to get her first serve in. That might lead to more misses.

I’m also just not sure what Bouzkova is going to be able to do to make Osaka uncomfortable from the baseline. Osaka’s footwork has gotten a little better since she brought on Patrick Mourataglou, so I’m not that worried about her struggling to run balls down. And the conditions in Rome will already help her do that. But I am concerned about how Bouzkova is going to be able to deal with the force Osaka plays with from the back of the court. Osaka should be able to dictate play, moving Bouzkova all around with her ability to strike the ball cleanly. That will give her all sorts of space to finish rallies off with winners.

Osaka has also dominated this head-to-head in the past, winning 6-2, 6-4 at the Australian Open in 2020 and 6-4, 6-1 at the US Open in 2021. Of course, both of those matches were played a while ago, but the on-court battle in style should lead to another comfortable win.

Pick: Osaka -2.5 Games (-139)