Rome Betting Preview: Tommy Paul vs. Alex de Minaur

On Tuesday, May 13, we’re going to witness a war along the baseline, as Alex de Minaur and Tommy Paul will compete for a spot in the quarterfinals at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. When it comes to digging in and grinding away at points, these are two of the first players that come to mind. Both are incredibly quick, they don’t miss a lot of shots and they rarely give up on balls. So, in slower clay-court conditions, this is going to be an extremely physical match, and it should be highly entertaining.

But this is one in which it’s a little hard to see Paul winning, so I’m taking de Minaur to cover a 1.5-game spread.

I would have loved to pounce on de Minaur on the moneyline, but it’s impossible to find a good price. However, the game spread should be alright with de Minaur’s ability to return. Over the last 52 weeks, only Carlos Alcaraz has a higher break percentage than de Minaur’s 31.6%. And the Australian actually has the highest clay-court break percentage in that span: all the way up at 40.5%. That’s really the reason I love de Minaur in this match. Paul’s serve has gotten a lot better over the years, but it’s still a weakness when he ends up facing strong competition. And I can see him being under pressure all throughout this one.

There’s a reason de Minaur is 5-0 at the ATP level against Paul, and his ability to return is one of them. However, that’s not the only advantage the Australian has. He’s also just a little better than Paul as a counter-puncher, and that’s because he is a little better when it comes to flying around the court. De Minaur is also sturdier from the forehand wing, which is important considering these two are pretty even from the backhand side. Both of them have elite two-handers, but Paul’s forehand is attackable. De Minaur’s used to be be, but he has worked diligently to turn that into a weapon.

It’s also just hard not to note that de Minaur beat Paul 7-5, 6-4 in Rome in 2022, and that was before the Australian started making strides on clay. He’s just 39-36 on the dirt in his career, but he’s 13-5 over the last 52 weeks. That stretch includes a semifinal run in Monte-Carlo and strong play in both Barcelona and Madrid. And now, de Minaur has a higher clay-court Elo rating than Paul. He also has a much higher Elo rating than Paul in 2025, as he has been a consistent presence deep in tournaments.

TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations also have de Minaur with a sizable edge in shot quality when it comes to the forehand and backhand on clay this season. So, taking everything into consideration, it’d be a little surprising if de Minaur can’t move to 6-0 against this opponent. Let’s just hope he can do it by two or more games.

Pick: de Minaur -1.5 Games (-129)