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Three to See, Aussie Open Day 1: Sabalenka vs. Stephens, Andreeva vs. Bouzkova, Zverev vs. Pouille

Are any surprises in store from this slate of matches on the opening day of the Melbourne major?

BySteve Tignor

Published Jan 11, 2025

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Aryna Sabalenka vs. Sloane Stephens

Sabalenka, 26, and Stephens, 31, aren’t all that far apart in age, but this feels like a match between Grand Slam champs from two different generations. A decade ago, Stephens made her name at this tournament by beating Serena Williams and losing a controversial semifinal to Victoria Azarenka. Now she’s ranked 66th, and may be first-round fodder for Sabalenka, the WTA’s star of the moment.

Sabalenka leads their head to head 4-0; even when Stephens was the higher-ranked player, she couldn’t get a win over her. But she did make the matches close. Three of their meetings have gone to a third set, and the most recent, two years ago at Roland Garros, was 7-6, 6-4. Which makes sense, because Sloane’s game should be one that annoys Sabalenka. She runs and defends and makes her opponents hit the extra ball to beat her. Sabalenka, like all power players, wants to end rallies with having to do anything extra.

At this point, though, Stephens probably can’t run and defend the way she once did; she has played two matches this season, and lost both. Sabalenka, meanwhile, is at the peak of her powers; she’s played five matches in 2025 and won them all. Winner: Sabalenka

Sabalenka has won 27 of her past 28 matches at hard-court majors (l. 2023 US Open final to Gauff)

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Mirra Andreeva vs. Marie Bouzkova

Andreeva, 17, have been on tour for nearly two years, but it feels like longer; she has already made a Grand Slam semifinal, after all. So it was a little surprising to find out that she has yet to face Bouzkova, a 26-year-old fixture of the Top 50.

Andreeva will come in as the favorite based on her shot-making alone. She hits a heavier ball from both sides, and especially with her top-shelf two-handed backhand. While Andreeva is nearly a decade younger than her opponent, she likely feels that this is a match she should win. She’s ranked 15th to Bouzkova’s 42nd, and is only heading higher from here. Her prime may still be years away, but her ambition to win majors and beat the world’s best isn’t.

Still, Bouzkova should offer a proper first-round test of those ambitions. She’s typically an energetic competitor, and she has already won five matches this season. But I think she’ll have to wait to get No. 6. Winner: Andreeva

The last time Zverev was bounced in the first round of a major? 2019 Wimbledon (Vesely).

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Alexander Zverev vs. Lucas Pouille

That name, Lucas Pouille, should jog some memories. Remember him, the Frenchman who beat Nadal at the US Open in 2016, helped France win the Davis Cup in 2017, made the Top 10 in 2018, reached an Australian Open semifinal in 2019? He’s still on tour, and has been very slowly making his way back up the rankings after having elbow surgery in 2021. As of the end of 2024, he had crept back into the Top 100, and back into the main draw in Melbourne.

Pouille is something of a mirror image of his opponent in this match. He and Zverev both have, or had, long blond hair, and both love grinding away from the baseline with full, flowing ground strokes. Where Zverev favors his backhand, though, Pouille’s weapon of choice was always his forehand.

Zverev is not a guy who typically blows people off the court, which means that Pouille should get his swings in, even if he’s still not up to his old level. But the Zverev of 2024-2025 is also not a guy who gives away a lot of early-round matches, especially in best of five. We should see a decent of the old Pouille game in this match, before it disappears again. Winner: Zverev

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