Three to See, US Open Day 8: Sinner vs. Paul; Pegula vs. Shnaider; Paolini vs. Muchova

Jannik Sinner vs. Tommy Paul

Questions about favoritism and failed doping tests swirled around the top-seeded Sinner as the tournament began. But those have proven to be his biggest challenges so far. Since then, he has barely been pushed by his first three opponents. That should change when he faces a seed for the first time on Monday. And not just any seed, but an American who would seem to be due for a big win over a top-tier opponent at a Grand Slam, and who will have a night-session crowd in Ashe Stadium cheering his every move.

Sinner and Paul have played three times, and Sinner has won twice. Two of the matches went three sets, but the Italian was solidly in control in a 6-4, 6-4 win in their most recent meeting, in Toronto last summer. That tournament marked the start of Sinner’s ascension to No. 1.

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Paul knows he’ll have to play better than he did then, and better than he did in his last match, a patchy four-set win over young Canadian Gabriel Diallo.

“He’s probably the best ball striker on tour, and I’m not,” Paul says of Sinner. “I don’t want to go toe to toe just banging on the baseline with him. I want to try and mix things up.”

By “mixing things up,” Paul means moving forward and using his serve as effectively as possible.

“I need to clean some things up,” he said after the Diallo match. “I’ll get back out on the practice court tomorrow and clean some things up with my footwork and getting to the net. I didn’t get to the net as much as I would have liked.”

Where Paul recognizes the threat of Sinner’s ball-striking, Sinner recognizes the same thing in Paul’s athleticism.

“He’s a great mover,” Sinner says. “He’s improved a lot in the last period of time. It’s going to be a tough challenge.”

That mix—hitter vs. runner—should make this an entertaining fight, and one tailor-made for Ashe at night. Paul is due for a win in a match of this magnitude, and there’s no better court for him to do it on. But I’ll play the percentages and take Sinner, who has already made of habit of bringing his best to stages this size. Winner: Sinner

Jasmine Paolini vs. Karolina Muchova

The most important question when assessing this surprisingly early—11:00 A.M. on Armstrong—match-up may be this: How much do Paolini’s results from before 2024 mean? The 28-year-old Italian has become a different player this season, rising from a third-tier threat to a two-time Grand Slam finalist in a matter of months.

Paolini is 0-3 against Muchova, but the most recent of those matches took place in 2021. In other words, before the New Paolini appeared. Muchova understands the difference.

“I think every week, every month, every year you are a different player,” Muchova said when she asked about facing Paolini. “Looking at her results, you can see that she really improved a lot.”

These two women have very different styles, but both have wide appeal. Including among themselves. On Saturday, Muchova pronounced herself a fan of Paolini’s—“She’s a very nice girl.” Later that day, Paolini returned the compliment.

“I really love how she plays,” she said of Muchova. “She can play every shot, every shot, slice, volleys, serve and volleys. She’s a very complete player, I think, very tough opponent.”

“I hope we can play a really, really good match.”

They should. They’re both 28, and have accomplished roughly the same amount. Muchova also reached the final of Roland Garros, and has been to the semis at the Australian Open and US Open. But if their careers have similarities, their styles will offer a clear contrast. Muchova uses variety and is adept at net. Paolini is an ultra-quick baseliner who uses that speed to defend and run around and pound her forehand.

If Muchova plays well, her proactive game, and these quick courts, should probably lead to a win. On the other hand, she’s returning from a long injury layoff, while Paolini is riding a wave of confidence from Paris and Wimbledon. Tough call. Winner: Muchova

Jessica Pegula vs. Diana Shnaider

Pegula beat Shnaider on hard courts last month in Toronto, 6-4, 6-3. Would it surprise you to learn that the modest Buffalonian is downplaying the importance of that win, as she gets ready to face the Russian again?

“Toronto I felt like I was playing really well during that whole week, so it’s tough to compare,” Pegula says. “I mean, we’re in a different city, different conditions, different situation.”

“I feel like she’s definitely going to know more what to expect because that was our first time playing each other, and she’s been super match-tough this year.”

She’s right about that last part. Shnaider’s rise in 2024 at age 20 has been nearly as impressive and surprising as Paolini’s. It has taken this former N.C. State player into the Top 20, and to a silver medal in women’s doubles at the Olympics. Shnaider has the advantage of being a lefty, and the even bigger advantage of being a seemingly indefatigable competitor. She doesn’t seem like the type to be overwhelmed by a high noon match in Ashe, against a home-state favorite.

In Toronto, Pegula was able to handle Shnaider’s lefty serve and neutralize her topspin forehand with her own, much flatter and more penetrating two-handed backhand. She was also able to use her equally flat and penetrating crosscourt forehand against Shnaider’s backhand. Pegula has the experience, the higher ranking, the head-to-head edge, and a game that’s likely better-suited to the surface. I’ll take her, but I won’t count out Shnaider, based on her grittiness alone. Winner: Pegula