Will Aryna Sabalenka win a non-hard-court major next season?

As we make our way toward the 2025 season—which begins Friday, December 27 with the United Cup—our writers and editors tackle the most important questions of the new year.

Sixth question: Will Aryna Sabalenka win a non-hard-court major next season?

Scroll down past this article to read more Burning Questions on 2025.

DAVID KANE: The women's game appeared poised to take on a tripartite as recently as last spring, with conventional wisdom suggesting that while Iga Swiatek played best on clay courts, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina had the upper hand on hard and grass courts, respectively. With Rybakina receding from the sport's top tier and Sabalenka making her biggest push yet to unseat Swiatek for world No. 1, that wisdom may yet be revised to a more simple binary: Swiatek on slow courts, Sabalenka on fast.

But that over-simplifies and over-looks Sabalenka's considerable improvements on all surfaces. While Swiatek was undoubtedly top dog throughout the clay swing, Sabalenka was not far behind with runner-up finishes in Madrid and Rome: only an illness ended a likely bid for a first Roland Garros final. And if former Wimbledon champ Rybakina was thought to be dominant on grass, Sabalenka has been a close second, defeating Rybakina at the All England Club in 2021 and coming within two games of a Wimbledon final in 2023.

Where pressure may be at its highest for Sabalenka on hard courts, on which she has won all three of her major titles, she may be able to hit with looser shoulders on clay and grass, and she will likely be a big favorite on the latter regardless of the field. Ending the year atop the WTA rankings was clearly satisfying for the 26-year-old, but Sabalenka hardly appears content to merely bash her way to victory as she employs ever more variety to an already daunting ground game. An improved touch on clay and a net-rushing mindset on grass may see her major results invert and a possible Channel Slam in her future.

This year was definitely up and down, sometimes really downs...a lot of crazy stuff happened to me. As I always say, there's always a reason. Aryna Sabalenka

JON LEVEY: Between the two options, Wimbledon seems like the smarter money. Sabalenka is plenty capable on clay, but it’s a more natural surface for many of her co-workers. Especially that former No. 1 from Poland who has already won a bunch of Roland Garros titles.

If form holds throughout the first half of the season, Sabalenka will likely be the favorite heading into London. Her take-no-prisoners, power game is buoyed by the grass courts and she’s no stranger to success there. A shoulder injury kept her out of last year’s draw, but her two previous attempts ended in semifinal runs. She lost both those matches after having won the first set—letdowns that she’s learning to avoid.

Then there’s the unusual string of Wimbledon winners. The rankings of the last three women’s champions were 32, 42 and 23. All were clearly worthy, but it’s still a baffling stat that’s overdue for a course correction. Sabalenka will put an end to that streak.

JOEL DRUCKER: Nothing in Aryna Sabalenka’s skill set and resume should preclude her from winning titles at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. She’s already generated impressive results at both of those majors, reaching the semis at Roland Garros in ‘23 and making a pair of final four appearances at the All England Club in ’21 and ‘23. In her Roland Garros semi, versus Karolina Muchova, Sabalenka held a match point.

Each of these majors has its own distinct challenge. At Roland Garros, Sabalenka’s power baseline is mostly an excellent fit for contemporary clay (perhaps she could be a bit more patient). The bigger hurdle in Paris is Iga Swiatek’s tremendously effective clay court game. As recent years have shown, Swiatek is extremely comfortable—emotionally, physically, tactically—at Roland Garros and has now won the women’s singles there four of the last five years.

My belief is that Sabalenka’s first non-hardcourt Slam title is more likely to come at Wimbledon. Even though grass is much slower than it was 20 years ago, it remains a surface for opportunists – players willing to look for ways to create openings and terminate rallies. That is a strategy near and dear to Sabalenka’s heart. Her two semi losses—versus Ons Jabeur in ’23 and Karolina Pliskova in ’21—each went three sets. Since then, she has taken great steps to play more consistently and minimize the rollercoaster-like emotions that surfaced earlier in her career.

Stay tuned for Sunday's question: Is Taylor Fritz the best hope to end the U.S. men's major title drought?